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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Saturday morning, December 18, 2021
Today a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on north-facing slopes above 8500 ft where a persistent weak layer of facets near the ground can produce an avalanche. All other slopes at mid and upper elevations have a MODERATE danger where soft slabs of new snow and wind drifted snow may avalanche. Slopes below 7000 feet have less snow and a LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Yesterday a skier in Big Cottonwood Canyon was fully buried in an avalanche. He survived without any major injuries. Read more HERE and watch the video of the avalanche below.
Sadly there was an avalanche further north in mountains just west of Driggs, ID that resulted in two fatalities. News article HERE.
Weather and Snow
Yesterday was cold and snowy with 2-5 inches of snow falling in most places. Winds were blowing 15-20 mph in many areas and drifting snow. At Tony Grove the 2-day total is 16 inches of settled snow (1.7 inches of water).
This morning skies have mostly cleared with fog in some areas. Temperatures are in the single digits F. Winds from the west are blowing 20 mph gusting to 27 mph on Logan Peak while winds in other lower elevation locations are blowing 5 mph.
Today will be mostly sunny and temperatures should reach the low 20s F. Winds will generally continue from the west and may pick up just a little this afternoon. The next chance for more snow is Wednesday with a better chance Thursday and Friday.
***Sunny slopes up high and most slopes below about 8000' were bare of snow before last week's storm.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported yesterday, but Toby spotted two avalanches near Tony Grove on Wednesday and Paige experienced cracking of the snowpack near Beaver Mountain.
This natural avalanche above the southwest corner of Tony Grove Lake is about a foot deep and 100' wide, NE, 8300'
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On north facing slopes above 8000 ft, old snow became weak and faceted in some places and will produce a soft slab avalanche. This persistent weak layer does not exist every where, and we're still trying to determine where it does and doesn't exist. In many places the old snow from October and early November is capped by a hard ice/rain/rime crust and December snow is well bonded to it. Other slopes have a thin layer of small facets above this crust and the December snow is not well bonded to it.
Yesterday on Red Pine Ridge and near Logan Peak, Toby and I were hunting for this weak layer. We could only find it in a few places as I mention in the video below. For now the only safe option is to assume it exists until proven otherwise, and avoid avalanche terrain on north facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There has been a lot of wind and a lot of snow in the last 48 hours which is a good thing! However, soft slabs of wind drifted snow may still produce avalanches. Fortunately these drifts are somewhat easy to see and avoid. The picture below that Toby took near Tony Grove Lake on Wednesday, shows what these drifts look like (wind was blowing from left to right in the photo).
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow that has fallen over the last 48 hours (up to 16 inches) needs just a little more time to bond with underlying snow. Two regular observers in the Tony Grove area yesterday observed instabilities in the new snow. For today soft slab avalanches of new snow remain possible. Fortunately these types of avalanche problems can stabilize in 24-48 hours after snow stops falling.
Finding some instabilities in the top foot or snow of the snowpack (photo - Eric and Amy Flygare)
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
  • Be very careful, keep your speed down, and stay in control. Encounters with shallowly buried rocks or down trees in the early season have led to many season-ending injuries.
  • The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter season.
General Announcements
  • Check out all the upcoming education classes and clinics HERE.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
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