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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, April 3, 2021
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural wet slab avalanches breaking to the ground may occur during the heat of the day. Avoid being on or below all steep slopes. It is difficult to predict when these avalanches might happen but there are a number of indicators that point to natural activity over the next few days.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
HEADS UP!! EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LIKELY TO MAKE THE SNOWPACK UNSTABLE AND CAUSE AVALANCHES THAT BREAK TO THE GROUND.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Temperatures remain very warm in the mountains with lows at 10,000' in the low to mid 40s. This is the second consecutive night with no solid refreeze.
Mountain Weather: Warm weather will continue through Monday. Highs will be into the mid 50s again today and Sunday and just slightly cooler Monday.
Recent Avalanches
A natural wet slab avalanche released in the Camp Chutes area of Huntington Canyon earlier this week. It broke into faceted snow near the ground. This is in low to mid elevation terrain. This is a good indicator that the same type of activity may release in the higher terrain during this period of warm weather we are experiencing.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack is not going to like all this warm weather and is likely going to become unstable. Avalanches breaking to the ground are likely over the next few days. Timing is difficult but my best bet is we start seeing these on Sunday. Here are the indicators for these wet avalanches:
  1. A persistent weak layer exists at the base of the snowpack.
  2. We are experiencing very warm weather. As a rule of thumb, three consecutive nights with no re-freeze is generally when we start seeing natural wet slab avalanche activity.
  3. There has been one natural wet slab avalanche that already released earlier this week in lower elevation terrain. This is an indicator that the higher terrain may follow suit with this warmer weather.
The good news is that not that many people get killed or injured in these wet avalanches because generally the riding conditions are not very good and people are usually not out in the mountains when these release. However, if you are going into the mountains this weekend, stay off of steep slopes to avoid potential trouble.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
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