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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 7, 2021
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain the primary concern. These are becoming a low probability/high consequence problem. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain near and above treeline that faces NW through N through SE. Thin snowpack areas around rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely trigger points. As the day heats up we may some loose wet activity on sun-exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls and pinwheels, and get off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Moderate to strong southerly winds blasted the mountains all day yesterday averaging 25-30 mph with gusts into the 40's. Overnight lows barely dipped below freezing at 10,000' but they dropped into the low 20's at 11,000'. Today we'll continue to see breezy SW winds blowing in the 15-20 mph range. Daytime highs will climb into the mid 40's. Clouds will develop tonight as a weak shortwave trough moves quickly through. We'll see decreasing clouds on Monday with continued breezy conditions and warm temps. Unsettled weather develops Wednesday as a cut off low tracks across the Great Basin and toward the desert SW. It's pretty much official now that this isn't going to be the big one that turns March around.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
Spring-like conditions are in effect and the snow during the day will be a mixed bag of crusts and glop with dry snow on shady aspects. Warm temperatures have helped to strengthen the snowpack and we are moving toward a low probability/high consequence situation for deep and dangerous avalanches. Weak, faceted snow can still be found on most aspects and stiff, hard slabs 1'-3' thick exist over this weak layer on slopes facing primarily NW-N-E-SE. Shallow areas, along slope margins and near rock outcroppings or sparse trees remain likely trigger points.
Conditions report from the La Sal Mountains:
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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