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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 6, 2021
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain the primary concern. These are becoming a low probability/high consequence problem. You are most likely to trigger one of these avalanches on steep terrain near and above treeline that faces NW through N through SE. Thin snowpack areas around rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely trigger points. As the day heats up we may some loose wet activity on sun-exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls and pinwheels, and get off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Under clear skies, southerly winds began to increase around midnight where they've averaged around 30 mph for the last six hours. Overnight low temps dipped into the 20's above 10,000' but low elevations did not see much of a freeze and it's already a warm 35F at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Today will be sunny, warm, and breezy with continued moderate ridgetop southerly winds and high temps near 40F, Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with temps soaring into the mid 40's. The mid-month Pacific trough we've been placing our hopes on for so long is looking less promising by the day as models continue to struggle for a solution. For now, look for unsettled weather to begin on Wednesday.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
A few inches of new snow on Thursday freshened up conditions but the sun was out in full force yesterday and most sun-exposed slopes will be crusted over this morning. In short, spring-like conditions are in effect and the snow during the day will be a mixed bag of crusts and glop with dry snow on shady aspects. Warm temperatures have helped to strengthen the snowpack and we are moving toward a low probability/high consequence situation for deep and dangerous avalanches. Weak, faceted snow can still be found on most aspects and stiff, hard slabs 1'-3' thick exist over this weak layer on slopes facing primarily NW-N-E-SE. Shallow areas, along slope margins and near rock outcroppings or sparse trees remain likely trigger points.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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