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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 8, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E, and deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas. Recent deposits of wind drifted snow have added additional stress in these areas. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and break wider and farther than expected. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists at mid-elevations. Generally, LOW danger can be found on low elevation, south-facing terrain.
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Special Announcements
We are filled with grief to report four fatalities from a skier triggered avalanche in the Wasatch Mountains yesterday. All were well known members of the backcountry community. Here is the preliminary report. In a little over a week, there have been 14 avalanche fatalities across the U.S. Conditions are dangerous in most regions and ours is no exception. Please stay conservative in your terrain choices.
Weather and Snow
Winds bumped up and shifted back to the WSW overnight. Expect them to swing more westerly today averaging 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along ridge tops. Skies will be mostly sunny with high temps at 10,000' near 30F. Look for increasing clouds overnight ahead of a weak system that will bring a slight chance for snow Tue-Wed. Long-range models are now hinting at a series of systems beginning to impact the area starting this weekend. Keep your fingers crossed.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
It's now been more than a week since our last significant snowfall and conditions are variable. Snow depths range from 2'-4' deep on northerly aspects while coverage on south-facing terrain remains quite thin with some slopes continuing to show bare ground. The sparse coverage makes conditions deceiving, but dangerous human triggered avalanches remain likely in steep, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, the underlying snow, however, is very weak and sugary and is providing an unstable base for slabs that have formed on top. Kevin Dressel was up on Wednesday and reported unstable conditions with reactive stability tests. See his report here.
Chris Benson did a flyover of both the La Sal and Abajo mountains yesterday and shot the following aerial footage.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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