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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 4, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, slabs have formed on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This persistent weak layer problem will be with us for the foreseeable future and though overall low coverage makes it difficult to access these areas, steep, northerly facing slopes should be avoided. There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes at upper elevations that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The Utah Avalanche Center podcast's second episode of season 4 is live - Managing Risk with Avalanches, Managing Risk with a Pandemic - A Conversation with state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.
Stream here or tune in wherever you get your favorite podcasts
There are several new blogs that have recently been published:
Read a few short anecdotes in a blog from UAC staff about how avalanches can surprise us.
UAC forecasters Paige Pagnucco and Greg Gagne discussing danger ratings and persistent weak layers.
Weather and Snow
Although an active weather pattern will bring a series of storms to the north throughout the upcoming week, the desert southwest, and particularly our mountain range will remain dry. Long-range models however are now hinting at developing moisture early next week. Look for mostly sunny skies today with light northwesterly winds shifting to the SW later today. High temps will be in the upper 20's.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
The existing snow structure is very poor. Recent and wind drifted snow overly a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow creating a persistent weak layer problem. In our travels Friday, we observed widespread cracking and collapsing of the snowpack. These are clear red flag signs of instability. Human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep, northerly facing slopes above about 10,000'. Overall coverage remains quite thin and there really isn't enough snow for much off-trail recreation.
This video of an extended column test illustrates the persistent weak layer problem. The slab on top slides off of the layer of sugary, faceted snow underneath.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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