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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Thursday morning, February 6, 2020
As winds blow and more snow falls, the danger is rising today but is dependent on how much snow falls today.
HEADS UP - Watch for snow sliding off roofs today if rain begins falling. A roof avalanche killed a woman in Washington this winter. Kids are especially vulnerable since they often play near homes and can be unsupervised.
At upper and mid elevations with the most snow and most wind, the avalanche danger will be CONSIDERABLE.
At low elevations, soft slab avalanches should become possible to trigger today and the danger will be MODERATE. The size and depth of these slabs is dependent on how much snow falls.
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Avalanche Warning
IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MST THURSDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS
THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH ON MANY SLOPES AT DIFFERENT ELEVATIONS AND ASPECTS.
HEAVY DENSE SNOW AND WINDS UP TO 100 MPH HAVE CREATED CREATED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
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Discounted lift tickets - Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, all proceeds from these ticket sales go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets here.
Weather and Snow
Overnight most areas have only received about 2 inches of snow.
Temperatures are 10 degrees warmer than they were at 6 p.m. yesterday. Most places have temperatures in the upper teens and low 20s F.
Winds are blowing 15 mph gusting to 20 mph, but nearby wind senors at 11,000 feet have recorded gusts up to 90 mph. Also, one person at Aspen Grove reported hearing very strong winds high above.
Today, strong westerly winds will continue today with temperatures rising into the upper 20s F. Snow will continue all day and tonight. A brief lull is possible this afternoon. By the end of the day, 3-6 inches should accumulate with a similar amount falling tonight. Scroll to the bottom for a video of a weather briefing from the National Weather Service.
The new snow is denser than the very low density powder under it. On many slopes there is a hard ice crust underneath snow that has fallen since Monday. North facing slopes do not have this crust. Riding conditions shouldn't be the best with this upside down snow. Looking ahead, as the snow settles and compresses, riding conditions should be much better sometime this weekend.
Below 6000 feet - precipitation should switch to rain late this morning. It shouldn't be heavy rain that causes widespread wet avalanches but enough to make the snow surface wet.
Recent Avalanches
A large natural occurred this morning in the Northeast Chute of Elk Point above Aspen Grove. There are few details on this avalanche yet.
Natural avalanches are occurring in Little Cottonwood Canyon which had received 9 inches. This avalanche activity started happening at 4 a.m., and it is a good indication of what should happen in other areas as snow falls today.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Here's the situation: Following a warm weekend, temperatures plummeted Sunday and snow fell on Monday. This snow was very low density and may have weakened some during very cold weather. One southerly facing slopes, this light snow rests on a hard ice crust.
Today's snow is denser and will be building soft slab on top of Monday's very light snow. This set up is called upside down snow.
As more snow falls and the slab will become thicker, avalanches will become larger, and avalanches will become easier to trigger. Many places only have an inch or two of snow this morning, but there should be more snow falling today. Places with more snow will generally have more dangerous avalanche conditions than places with less new snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds at upper elevations likely caused the natural avalanche reported this morning at Elk Point.
The size and sensitivity of today's wind slabs will increase as more snow falls and winds continue blowing. Winds have been blowing from the west, but look for freshly wind loaded slopes on any aspect. These slopes can be loaded from the top of ridges or across the sides of other ridges.
Additional Information
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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