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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 29, 2020
Recent wind drifts have formed as a result of Monday's storm and the avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted slopes. Increasing northerly winds will continue to blow and drift snow today. Areas of unstable wind drifted snow are most likely to be found on upper elevation slopes that face NW-E-S. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer, particularly on wind loaded slopes that face S-SE. Other outlying areas of concern include steep, rocky, northerly facing terrain that has a shallow snowpack.
Low
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Extreme
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Special Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 15-16 in Moab. Click here to register A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs.
New UAC Podcast: The Art of Storytelling Through Film - A Conversation with Trent Meisenheimer check it out HERE.
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed on Tuesday. The road is clear but snowpacked.
Grooming report: LUNA Matt from Rim Tours groomed the entire mountain yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 15" Base Depth in Gold Basin 50" Wind NW 20-25 mph Temp 13F
Weather: Snow totals from Monday's quick-hitting storm turned out to be 5" and conditions yesterday were much better than I expected. Unfortunately, after a mostly calm day yesterday, NW winds bumped up early this morning into the 20-25 mph range with gusts to near 30. Skies are mostly cloudy as a weak system blows through the area bringing with it a slight chance for snow. Once it moves on, we should see mostly sunny skies later today with continued blustery, northerly winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. Another weak system will blow through on Thursday night with high pressure moving in in Friday.
Snow conditions: The snowpack has seen it all over the past week starting with up to 15" of snow since last Wednesday. Sustained, moderate NW winds alternately drifted snow and scoured surfaces, while periods of sun and warm temperatures crusted over southerly aspects. Soft snow remains in sheltered locations and the most recent snow has provided a refresh in those same areas. Underneath, the snowpack is also variable. In many areas above about 10,500; the pack is deep and strong. Wind exposed slopes, and rocky areas right around treeline and below have shallower and weaker snow.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Recent Avalanches
No other activity has been reported since last week's event.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent wind drifts from Monday's storm event are in abundance in the high country. They are mostly located on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges and rock buttresses or outcroppings on slopes that face N-E-SE, but cross-loading has occurred on NW aspects as well. Today, be on the lookout for fresh drifts to form on these same aspects as well as S as increasing northerly winds continue to blow and drift snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spatial variability in the snowpack is the key phrase right now. Many areas have a deep and strong, underlying snowpack, while wind exposed areas, and rocky slopes right around treeline and below have a shallower and weaker snowpack. A prominent, and still reactive weak layer exists on SE-S facing slopes, and when wind-loaded, this layer will be reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. To avoid slopes that have a weak layer, stick to more sheltered terrain below ridge crests, and on slopes that have a deep, underlying snowpack.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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