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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 27, 2020
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE and human triggered avalanches are possible. The new snow shouldn't change things much but with the increasing NW winds we may see some fresh drifts forming at upper elevations. Steep, wind drifted slopes right around treeline and above that face N-NE-SE are the most likely areas for you to trigger an avalanche. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper, and more dangerous avalanche. Persistent weak layers have been observed on slopes facing NW-N-S. A keen eye for wind loaded slopes, and a penchant for digging into the snow are essential skills to have before venturing into steep terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 15-16 in Moab. Click here to register A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs.
New UAC Podcast: The Art of Storytelling Through Film - A Conversation with Trent Meisenheimer check it out HERE.
Road Conditions: The road was plowed on Wednesday. Thank you Grand County!
Grooming report: Our dedicated groomer Matt Hebberd groomed the entire mountain on Friday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 1" Weekly Snow 11" Base Depth in Gold Basin 46" Wind NW 10-15 mph Temp 23F
Weather: About an inch of snow has fallen with another 1"-2" before the storm moves on sometime late this morning or early afternoon. Clearing could be rapid with a possibility for sunny skies this afternoon. Look NW winds to increases into the 20-25 mph range. High temps will be in the mid 20's. A transitory ridge will build on Tuesday, followed by another trough on Wednesday that looks like it will be diving south.
Snowpack: Time and warm temps have helped to strengthen the snowpack while also putting a crust on south-facing, sun-exposed slopes. Good riding and turning conditions can still be found in sheltered locations including some of the less wind-affected alpine areas. Avalanche conditions remain somewhat tricky with spatial variability being the key phrase. Deep drifts exist alongside wind-scoured areas while a surprising amount of terrain has been left untouched. In some areas, deep drifts are overlying shallow, weaker snow while in others, the underlying snowpack is relatively strong and deep. A keen eye for wind loaded slopes, and a penchant for digging into the snow are essential skills to have before venturing into steep terrain.
Travis Nauman and company were out Saturday and reported a wide variety of conditions with warm temps and a strong sun. See his observation for more details.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Recent Avalanches
More reports of natural activity from last week's snow and wind event continue to trickle in. Chris Benson sent in this report of a natural avalanche he observed in Dark Canyon.
Jonathan Dutrow from Talking Mountain Yurts reported a wind slab avalanche on a SE aspect near Burro Pass.
Other slides detailed earlier:
Storm snow avalanche in Talking Mountain Cirque on the night of Wed 21.
Wind slab release from a repeat running path in Tele Gold that also likely ran sometime the night of Wednesday, Jan 21.
Wind slab avalanche from the night of January, 22.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow shouldn't change things much but with the increasing NW winds we may see some fresh drifts forming at upper elevations. Wind drifts that developed during the week are becoming harder to trigger with each passing day but human triggered avalanches up to 18" deep remain possible. Most drifting has occurred right around treeline and above on slopes facing N-NE-SE, but shifting wind directions and speeds have deposited snow in isolated areas on virtually all aspects, particularly at upper elevations. In some areas, triggered wind drifts have the potential to break into older, weak snow. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance, and changes in snow depth along ridgelines can indicate areas of wind loading. Your best bet is to continue to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spatial variability in the snowpack is the key phrase right now. Many areas have a deep and strong, underlying snowpack, while others have buried persistent weak layers that have come alive with the most recent snow load. Deep wind drifts are overlying loose, weak, buried surface snow on some northerly aspects. In addition, loose, sugary, faceted snow can be found in shallower, rocky areas just below treeline. And finally, I have observed a reactive, persistent weak layer on S-SE facing slopes. Though not unheard of, this is an uncommon concern. The only way to really know what is going on right now is to dig down and take a look.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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