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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 16, 2020
Strong southerly winds over the past several days continue to blow and drift snow and the avalanche danger remains MODERATE at mid and upper elevations. The danger is most prevalent on steep slopes facing W-N-E that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind drifts will be recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and sometimes hollow feel. Cracking is a sign of instability. Ranging from 3"-18" deep, steep slopes with recently deposited, wind drifted snow should be avoided. Most south-facing and low elevation terrain have generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
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Special Announcements
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snowpacked. Be aware of blown and drifted snow.
Grooming update: Matt groomed all the trails yesterday and cross-county skiing conditions will be good today. Get it before the wind does!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind SE 31 G40 Temp 30F
I hope you enjoyed the beautiful day and relative calm yesterday. SE winds are back at it again and clouds are moving ahead of the last storm system in this pattern. Unfortunately, as has been typical with this pattern, we are mostly seeing wind, not snow. Today look for increasing clouds and southerly winds blowing in the 20 mph range with gusts in the 30's along ridge tops. We may see a few snow showers tonight with the main brunt occurring tomorrow. It looks to me like we'll be lucky to squeak more than a couple of inches out of this but let's hope I'm wrong. One thing's for sure, winds are going to blow and shift to more westerly averaging 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 50. As the storm moves on late Friday, high-pressure begins to build through the weekend. Conditions remain dry into mid-week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Recent Avalanches
Dave Garcia observed this avalanche on Monday off the shoulder of the NE face of Tukno. If you read that day's forecast, I noted the potential for this particular path, a classic runner with only a few inches of snow and strong SW winds. Though not a large avalanche, it's remarkable how much snow was entrained, and how far it ran.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds continue to keep the threat of wind slabs alive and well. Drifts formed earlier in the week have grown stubborn and more difficult to trigger, but fresh wind slabs continue to form. Human triggered avalanches ranging from a few inches up to 18" deep remain possible. Be very suspicious of smooth, rounded pillows, and harder surfaces that feel and sound hollow like a drum. The slabby conditions are difficult to ski, and their stubborn nature may lure you further on to them before they release. For safety and snow quality, stick to sheltered, non-wind loaded terrain.
Additional Information
Wind slab danger notwithstanding, the state of our overall snowpack is looking good. On Tuesday, pro observers Dave Garcia, Nate Ament and I dug a full depth pit on a north aspect at around 10,800'. The season snowfall history can be clearly detailed. The only weak layers we observed are at storm interfaces that have occurred since Christmas Eve. These have been non-reactive for some time and are showing a general trend towards strengthening. Since we didn't get early season snow, we are blessed to not have a layer of weak, sugary facets, or depth hoar at the base of the snowpack. The facets that do exist at the base of the pack are small-grained and are rounding which signals a trend toward strengthening.
I've included both a Photoshop profile and Dave Garcia's Snowpilot profile so you can compare the two and see how they correlate. The hand hardness tests you see in the photo are noted along the bottom of the Snowpilot profile as fist (F), four finger (4F), one finger (1F), pencil (P), and knife (K). In this way you can see how the snowpack generally gains strength as it goes down. Also note the weak interfaces at 67, 80, and 102 cms.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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