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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 22, 2019
New and wind drifted snow have created dangerous avalanche conditions and the avalanche danger is HIGH today. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Low
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Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN MOAB HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.
* TIMING... 6 AM MST FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM MST SATURDAY.
* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER HAS RISEN TO HIGH.
* REASON/IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND HAS CREATED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW AND DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES. AVOID TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN.
Special Announcements
Grand County will be plowing today! Expect the gate to be closed until at least noon while plowing is in progress.
Weather and Snow
If snow sensors are to be believed, we picked up 20" of snow in Gold Basin in the last 24 hours with the heaviest period of precipitation occurring between 3:00 p.m. and midnight last night. This amount doesn't really correlate well with the 6" being reported at Geyser Pass Trailhead, but it does correlate with water amounts being reported there. Confused? Me too. But until proven otherwise, I'm going to have to assume that up to 2' has fallen above 10,000' and rate the danger accordingly. SE ridge top winds ramped up yesterday as well averaging 25 mph with gusts to 40. They backed off a little after midnight and are averaging 15-20 mph with gusts near 30. Light snow showers should continue through the day with another 2"-4" possible. Mostly light to moderate southerly winds will shift to the NW later today. High temps will be in the low 20's. Tomorrow looks to be a beautiful, sunny day. With plowing and high danger to contend with today, I'd probably just wait until then.
Dave Garcia and Tim Mathews were out yesterday and sent in this excellent observation. Recommended reading for more details about the current snowpack.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
Most natural avalanches from the last storm cycle were confined to the most recent snow. On Tuesday, Feb 19 however, a party of snowmobilers remotely triggered an avalanche from a ridge top. The slab failed on the December persistent weak layer. Details here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be likely today. Yesterday, Dave and Tim observed that the new snow was already forming a cohesive slab, and significantly more snow has fallen since then. Look for cracking in the snow surface, dig quick hand pits to determine if there is a slab. Though natural activity likely occurred last night during the peak of the storm, loose snow sluffing, and soft slab releases from above could be a concern today, especially if winds increase. Bottom line, stay off of and out from under steep, avalanche prone terrain today.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate SE winds blew and drifted snow onto leeward slopes for most of the day yesterday. With heavy snowfall, and continued winds throughout most of the evening, drifts have become deeper and more connected. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure continues to plague the snowpack and persistent weak layers remain a concern. The additional snow load has added As the snowpack gains strength the problem is becoming less widespread, but Tuesday's remotely triggered avalanche is a stark reminder of how real the problem can be. The most likely areas of concern are steep, rocky, northerly facing aspects right around treeline, and in areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Avalanche paths that have already run are also suspect. Travel advice remains the same as above, avoid steep, avalanche prone terrain.
Additional Information
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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