Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 2, 2019
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Avoid slopes with a smooth rounded appearance or that show signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for avalanches stepping down 2'-4' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Northerly facing slopes with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
y
Webcam photo courtesy of Kevin Dressel.
Skies are clear, NE winds are blowing 15-20 mph on Abajo Peak, and it's 4 degrees at Buckboard Flat. Temps today will creep up into the high teens, but continued light to moderate NE winds will keep a serious chill in the air. Dry weather with gradually warming temps will continue through the week with our next chance for snow looking like around Sunday.
The Abajo Mountains picked up 6"-8" of snow from Tuesday's storm and conditions are slowly but surely improving. Unfortunately, winds have had their way with the snow surface in exposed areas and you'll have to seek out more sheltered locations to find powder. Low snow conditions still exist so beware of buried land mines such as rocks, and downed trees. Base depth at Buckboard Flat is 20".
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Conditions are starting to look a lot better up there! Photo courtesy of Dustin Randall.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds over the past couple of days have shifted from SE-NE-NW and aback again, easily blowing and drifting Tuesday's 6" of low density snow around. Today's NE winds will continue to move snow around. Be on the lookout for fresh deposits and newly formed stiff slabs, on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Avoid slopes with a smooth rounded appearance or that show signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On upper elevation, northerly aspects, snow has been sitting around on the ground since October. This has formed a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that makes an unstable base for new snow on top. In some areas it may be possible to trigger an avalanche 2'-3" deep down to these weak, sugary snow. Areas of steep, radical, and wind loaded terrain that faces the north half of the compass are where you are most likely to encounter this problem.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.