Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 23, 2018
Due to overall low snow coverage, the avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo Mountains. There is an isolated, or MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E. In these areas, old snow from October has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that is providing an unstable base. There may also be a few stiff wind drifts in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Low snow conditions are in effect and backcountry travelers need to exercise caution in avoiding buried obstacles such as rocks and deadfall.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
High clouds ahead of a weak storm system have begun to stream into the region. WNW winds are light this morning and temperatures are in the teens. The fast moving short wave should quickly move through the area allowing for partly sunny skies today. Winds will shift to the SW averaging 10-15 mph, and high temps at 10,000' today will be near 30 degrees. Unsettled weather is forecasted for the upcoming week with the best chance for snow looking like late Christmas day into Wednesday.
Snow conditions are still quite low for off-trail recreation.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snow that has sat around since October has deteriorated into a weak base of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You can find this weak snow on mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-W. The photo below illustrates the early December snow, separated from the October snow by a melt freeze crust. Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow exist above, and below the crust. This is an unstable base. Though the danger is growing increasingly unlikely, human triggered avalanches, breaking down into this weak, sugary snow are still possible on steep, upper elevation slopes with a northerly aspect.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.