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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, December 16, 2023
A sea of green light conditions offer miles of predictable avy danger-
Today, you'll find LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY. Yeah, you'd really have to go out of your way to trigger a slide. But... LOW danger isn't necessarily no danger, though just like a scene in the Soprano's, you don't want get on the wrong side of Silvio Dante and have a Jersey Takedown come your way. Steep, rocky terrain in the windzone offering a shallow snowpack aligns with a cast of characters you don't trust in a dark alley near the Bada-Bing Club, or in the mountains... either could throw an unexpected curve ball your way.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Many thanks to Shaun Raskin and the Inspired Summit Adventures team for hosting last nights State of the Pack prezo! It was nice to see a few old friends and make some new ones along the way... let's keep that positive energy rollin' :)
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Strong high pressure delivers clear skies as southwest winds blow in the teens near the ridges. A strengthening inversion builds and cold air pools at lower elevations, yet it's still rather mild with current temperatures registering in the low 20's at the trailheads and hovering right around 30 degrees near the ridges. Riding and turning conditions have taken a bit of a hit. Sunny slopes took on heat the past few days and offer variable conditions, while riding and turning conditions remain quite good on shady slopes where you'll find shallow, creamy pow.
Forecast- A rinse and repeat cycle of severe clear is slated through early next week. Winds remain generally light as high temperatures climb into the 30's with overnight lows dipping into the mid 20's.
Futurecast- No big weather pattern change until perhaps right around Christmas.
Even though it may seem like a slow start to the season, the snowpack is about average (scroll to the bottom of the forecast for more info). There are 3 basic layers in the snowpack (1) old snow from October and mainly November with a crust from mid-November, (2) snow from the warm, wet storm from the first weekend of December with a crust on top of it, and (3) snow from last Friday which favored the northern part of the Uintas.
Recent Avalanches
No significant avalanches to report for nearly a week. All Uinta avalanche activity is found HERE.
Trip reports and the latest observations are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
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Likelihood
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Here's the deal-
From the North Slope to Mill Holllow and everywhere in between, snow pros were out in full force yesterday, gathering intel, while getting a lay of the land and a finger on the pulse of snow stability. The jury is back from deliberations and the verdict is in... stability tests and lack of avalanche activity confirm our suspicions... the snowpack is relaxed and happy in its own skin. Our main man Ted Scroggin has a most excellent ob from the Double Hill zone and says... "Pretty supportable snow out there, I think the heavy, wet and dense snow from early this month has helped the snow pack gain a little strength, although it is easy to locate weak snow near the ground." So yeah... the setup of stronger snow resting on top of weak snow exists, but man, you'd really have to go out hunting for a slide.The good news is... we've got plenty of choices and there's miles of terrain to ride safely today.
Outlier terrain in the bulls-eye where you could get into trouble today includes, steep, rocky, wind drifted slopes in the wind zone. However, it feels like the right cast of characters would have to perfectly align to throw a wrench in your day.
Mark describes the setup near Moffit Pass
Additional Information
Huge thanks to Rylan from Young Powersports for trusting me with the keys to the backcountry kingdom as well the keys to this 2023 Polaris. The decades old "loaner sled" partnership with Polaris allows me to see more terrain, issue more accurate forecasts, and ultimately saves lives! Note to self... always remember to grab the keys to the sled before leaving the dealer :)
While it seems like a slow start to the season, in terms of water amounts, SNOTEL sites in the Western Uintas generally have median values. White dots are at the median. Green are a little above, and beige dots are a little below. Click on the image for an interactive map from the NRCS.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at craig@utahavalanchecenter.org or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 04:00 on Saturday, December 16th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Sunday, December 17th, 2023.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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