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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, January 17, 2024
All the snow-pros I knows, echo the exact same prose... any avalanche triggered can fail on a persistent weak layer now buried deep in our snowpack, producing a deep and dangerous slide.
HIGH avalanche danger is found on steep, upper elevation slopes around the compass, but it's particularly sketchy on leeward slopes in the windzone at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches breaking to deeply buried weak layers are LIKELY in terrain facing the north half of the compass, and especially on slopes with an easterly component to its aspect. Note to self... if I trigger an avalanche it could result in a large and potentially unsurvivable slide.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found near treeline on the south aspects and below treeline on shady slopes where human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE. In either case, a midpack weak layer remains suspect and is guilty until proven otherwise.
Lower elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass delivers MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep, wind drifted slopes.
Here's your exit strategy-
We need to continue steering clear of terrain with overhead hazard and that means... avoid being on, under, or near all avalanche terrain where we could potentially pull the rug out from underneath and crash the roof down on top ourselves.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Weekend storms delivered unprecedented avy conditions and Extreme danger for the mountains of Northern Utah. Wondering how we got there and where we're going? Well then... you came to the right place!
Please join Craig Gordon (that's me :) 6:00-7:00 tonight for a State of the Snowpack presentation at the A. Ray Olpin Student Union- Saltair Room 200 Central Campus Dr, Salt Lake City, UT 84112.
But wait... there's more! Following my prezo is an amazing panel discussion focusing on Mountain Resilience: Navigating Grief, Long-Term Injury, and Identity Crisis in the Backcountry, delivered by a truly remarkable trio of women... Jess Shade, Jessie Brunelle, and River Barry. More deets HERE.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- My, my... hey, hey... we're out of the blue and into the black with current temperatures registering in the mid 20's across the board. Clouds thicken and winds blowing from the southwest bumped into the 30's overnight, as another storm is just beginning to slide into the northern half of the state. It's been a superior run of storms and in less than a week our snowpack doubled, going from zero to hero. Yup, the riding and turning is all time right now.
Forecast- A good shot of snow develops this morning, a brief break midday, but then snow fills back in again late this afternoon. Look for about 12" of snow with an inch of water by suppertime. Winds blowing from the west are gonna be obnoxious, spinning anemometers in the 40's and 50's near the high peaks. Temperatures climb into the upper 20's and then dip into the teens overnight.
Futurecast- Snow continues through early Thursday, tapering off a the day wares on. A break in the action slated for Friday. Timing and strength of a possible weekend storm is still up in the air, but I'll have a better handle for tomorrows update.
This is how you do it right... pro rider extraordinaire and overall remarkable person, Dan Gardiner, enjoyed all our recent storm snow and did it safely by riding terrain with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where he was traveling. He got the goods, got home safely to his family, and somewhere in-between got plenty of time in the White Room :)
Firing on all cylinders, the weekend storm delivered Herculean snow and water totals to the northern half of the range. In fact, since January 4th the North Slope clocks in with 64" of snow and just over 5" of water.
Scroll to the bottom of the page for current snow depths.
Recent Avalanches
Remotely triggered yesterday from a flat ridge above, this avalanche, on a steep Northeast facing slope at 10,200' broke 4' deep and 200' wide and is a clear indication of very strong snow resting on weak snow. More importantly it speaks to the unpredictable nature of our avalanche dragon and tells me.... any slide triggered is gonna break deep and wide and will instantly ruin my day!
Meanwhile on the south half of the range... this slide triggered mid slope on a heavily wind loaded east facing slope at 9,500' in Blind Stream has similar characteristics.
Also of note is this slide on the north side of Double Hill which avy-savvy, snow-pro's Ted Scroggin and Steve Martin documented HERE along with a great viddy captured HERE.
Read more Uinta observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark describes in excellent detail, what he and Westin D found whilst visiting the Iron Mine area yesterday.
The good news... last weeks storm lit up the Uintas, pasting the range with a thick coat of white paint, and our backyard looks like winter!
The bad news... big snow, big water, and big wind equals a tremendous amount of weight (stress) stacking up on our mid December drought layer. Indeed, the snowpack is up against the ropes and reeling from this body bruising trifecta.
Now for the flake news... just like a migrating school of white sharks this setup isn't going away quickly, so we need to go to the mountains on its terms, give the snowpack some time to adjust, and simply avoid the sharks habitat. Perhaps over time these visiting apex predators leave their feeding grounds and we can paddle out into the lineup. However, now is the time to pump the brakes, practice some patience, know it's a long season and we've got plenty more opportunities to ride fresh pow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fresh wind drifts-
Today's wind and storm snow create sensitive drifts reactive to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, I suspect you'll also find shallow drifting at lower elevations and around terrain features like chutes and gullies.The ticket is to avoid fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they sound hollow like a drum.
Older wind drifts-
Mark had some great insight and thoughts from his field day yesterday... "Storms since Jan 5 have come with a lot of wind including last weekend. Winds had reached well into normally sheltered areas. I was surprised to see large drifts on normally sheltered terrain." Perhaps older drifts are harder to trigger, but once initiated they'll be packing a punch.
Additional Information
Snow summary from NRCS SNOTEL sites:
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at craig@utahavalanchecenter.org or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 0430 on Wednesday, January 17th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Thursday, January 18th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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