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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, January 11, 2024
This is the real-deal... the snowpack is super sketchy and the setup is nothing to mess around with-
Recent winds coupled with heavy snow deliver a one-two punch and the avy danger is HIGH. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are VERY LIKELY, particularly in steep, leeward terrain above treeline, and especially in the wind zone on slopes with an easterly component to its aspect. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to break deeper and wider than you might expect... it'll pack a powerful, season ending punch.
Wind penetrated mid elevation terrain where you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep wind drifted slopes.
MODERATE avalanche danger exists near the lower trailhead elevations where fresh wind drifts react to our additional weight and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Here's your exit strategy-
I know you're looking for a place to ride, but it's time to really rein it in. Big, open, low elevation meadows with NO overhead hazard (no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding) are the ticket. Remember, the snowpack is in its infancy and it's still lean with no shortage of equipment trashing rocks and stumps barely lurking underneath a thin coat of white paint.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
An AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Friday, for the mountains of northern and central Utah, including the Wasatch Range...Bear River Range...Uinta Mountains...and Manti-Skyline plateau.
The avalanche danger is HIGH today.
Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are likely. Please stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Special Announcements
Wondering what happened to the mid-pack PWL? Curious how the December dryspell will play out? Interested in what factors determine future stability trends? Well then, you came to the right place! Please join UAC forecaster Craig Gordon (that's me) at 6:00 on Thursday January 11th at the Kimball Junction library for a state of the snowpack presentation. It's guaranteed to be informative, most likely educational, and possibly even entertaining :)
Also, Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Winter returned with a clear objective.... it's in it, to win it! Storm totals in the 12"-15" range with just over an inch of H2O blanket the eastern front. Clouds thin out early this morning as one storm exits the arena and another waits in the wings. Temperatures cratered overnight, hovering in the low single digits and slightly below zero in terrain were cold air pools. Yesterday's winds relaxed around dinnertime, switched to the northwest, and currently blow in the teens. Wind chill values near the peaks register to -25 degrees. I know you came for the wind, but I hope you'll stay for the snow.... it's over-the-hood and in yer face.
Forecast- Look for a short break in the action this morning with mostly cloudy skies and a few scattered snow showers. West and northwest winds take a break, but come back energized for the second half of the game, blowing in the 40's and 50's near the high peaks by days end. It'll feel like winter with high temperatures barely clawing their way into the low teens.
Futurecast- Stormy through the end of the work week, but the hammer really comes down over the weekend! Saturday's storm is a bit warmer as it links up with a piece of Atmospheric River... that combo lights up the western Uinta's. A little bird pecking at the ouija board suggests big snow and big water by Monday.
The gift that keeps giving... keeps giving! Our good friends and longtime partners at the SLC NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Uinta zone.
Basic layering in the Uinta snowpack.
Recent Avalanches
Failing on the mid December drought layer, this slide on a steep shady slope in Upper Weber Canyon was triggered from a couple hundred feet away.... yeah, it's that tender!
More Uinta avy activity found HERE
Latest Uinta observations are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Find the wind and you find the problem.
Winds have been all over the map the past few days and there's not shortage of light, fluffy snow available to blow around and form drifts, sensitive to our additional weight. Today, we need to look for and avoid fresh wind drifts on the leeward side of ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Any slide triggered will break into weaker layers of snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The biggest clue to avalanches is ???... AVALANCHES! This slide initially failed on the mid December drought layer and then broke into weaker snow on this steep, rocky slope.
It's game on, it's tricky out there, and the personality of our avalanche dragon is getting downright rowdy. In fact, slabs triggered from a distance are becoming the rule more than the exception.
Here's the setup... a strong cohesive slab rests on a Gong Show of weak, old, sugary snow, or in snow-geek-speak... a persistent weak layer (PWL) formed during the December dryspell. Whatever your classification, know that once triggered, any avalanche breaking into older snow will get out of hand quickly... no bueno!
Here's what we do to keep it simple... it's time to pump the brakes and simply stay off of and out from under steep terrain.
Additional Information
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at craig@utahavalanchecenter.org or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 0430 on Thursday, January 11th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Friday, January 12th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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