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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Monday morning, April 5, 2021
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. Natural wet slab avalanches breaking to the ground may occur during the heat of the day. Avoid being on or below all steep slopes. It is difficult to predict when these avalanches might happen but there are a number of indicators that point to natural activity today.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
HEADS UP!! EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER THROUGH TODAY IS LIKELY TO MAKE THE SNOWPACK UNSTABLE AND CAUSE AVALANCHES THAT BREAK TO THE GROUND.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Temperatures remain very warm with a fourth night in a row of lows well above freezing. Temperatures hovered around 40. Snow melt has been dramatic over the last 4 days.
Mountain Weather: Today will be the last day of the unusually warm weather. Southerly wind is expected to pick up this afternoon ahead of a minor weather disturbance that will move through. Light snowfall is possible early Tuesday with no accumulations expected. Temperatures rebound for the rest of the week but won't get as warm as they have over the last few days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today is another likely day for natural wet slab avalanche activity. We've had four nights in a row with no re-freeze. Melt down has been impressive. Water is draining through the snowpack. SWE (snow water equivalent) has decreased at all of the remote weather stations.
Here are other indicators for these wet avalanches:
  1. A persistent weak layer exists at the base of the snowpack.
  2. We are experiencing very warm weather. As a rule of thumb, three consecutive nights with no re-freeze is generally when we start seeing natural wet slab avalanche activity.
  3. There has been one natural wet slab avalanche that already released earlier this week in lower elevation terrain. This is an indicator that the higher terrain may follow suit with this warmer weather.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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