Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, March 12, 2020
Overall, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. New wet snow today may increase the avalanche danger. Use caution especially this afternoon as new snow starts to stack up. Watch for "pinwheels" and "point release" avalanches. Avoid being in steep gullies and below steep slopes if you are sinking deep into wet snow.
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Moderate
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Warm weather continues and will continue. Wind is light from the east and temperatures in the upper elevations are hoverning around freezing.
Mountain Weather: We have another storm moving in from the southwest today which should bring 4 to 7 inches of snow. The flow will be from the east early on and switch southwest later today. Wind looks fairly light during this event which may limit "orographic lift" or "upslope snowfall" and not produce as much snow as expected. However, I find these storms very difficult to forecast and I wouldn't be surprised to see more snow than I anticipate.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I expect conditions to be a real wet mess out there today. With continued warm temperatures the snowpack is taking a huge hit. It is saturated (wet) all the way through the pack in many areas making it unsupportable. When it gets like this, it can be dangerous on steep slopes. Generally, what happens is a small "point release" avalanche releases and then just keeps gaining momentum as it spreads out wider and gouges deep into the snowpack entraining all of the snow. These types of avalanches are hard to predict when they will start happening but they're pretty easy to avoid. If you find "punchy" snow where you're sinking in deep, avoid steep slopes.
Additional Information
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.