Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, February 4, 2021
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the upper elevation steep terrain. Human triggered avalanches are likely especially above 9500 feet where freshly formed wind drifts are present. If you trigger one of these avalanches, it will be 2 to 3 feet deep or more which is quite dangerous.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The Skyline picked up 4 to 5 inches of new snow last night. It was a bit windy with the snow but the wind has slowed quite a bit and is from the northwest. Temperatures are in the low teens. The new snow should improve riding conditions but you'll still find most areas will be punchy and unsupportable to snowmobiles.
Mountain Weather: We'll see partly cloudy skies today with high temperatures staying in the mid teens. Wind will be from the northwest and will be light to moderate in speed. There's another chance for snow late Friday and we might pick up a few more inches. The weekend is looking pretty nice.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You'll find a stiffer layer of snow under the new snow due to the recent warm up. In many low and mid elevations it will be a melt-freeze crust. This layer should ultimately help the supportability of the snowpack and probably make snowmobile travel easier over the next few storms. The jury is out on how this layer will impact the avalanche conditions. The loose sugary faceted snow is still present below it. My suspicion is that this layer is going to allow quite a bit more snow to be added before it becomes really active again. I'm guessing it will "mask" the weak snow below because it is going to make it harder for a person to collapse the underlying weak snow. In other words, things won't be as sensitive and we might not experience as much "whoomping" of the snowpack which is an obvious sign of instability. Time will tell. Bottom line, it's still dangerous right now.