Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, February 2, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today in the higher terrain. Human triggered avalanches are likely on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees and especially where the wind has been drifting the newer snow.
Avalanches can be triggered from a distance and from below slopes. Be sure to avoid being below steep slopes as well as staying directly off of them.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Very mild temperatures are changing the snow surface. On Tuesday, the snow became damp on all aspects up to around 9500'. The snow surface above 9500' has become dense loose snow. It has dramatically settled since the weekend storm. This is going to provide a notable layer once temperatures cool again. The layer is going to provide supportability to the snowpack making travel on skis and snowmobiles easier. This type of situation is more common in March rather than early February.
Overnight temperatures remained mild with many stations hovering around freezing or a bit warmer. Southwest wind has increased along the highest peaks.
Mountain Weather: Unseasonably warm temperatures are in store again today. We'll see highs pushing 40 degrees at some mountain locations again. We'll have some variable clouds through the day. The next storm moves through Wednesday and Wednesday night with much cooler temperatures and hopefully 4 to 6 inches of snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Likelihood
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Description
The warm temperatures are good for settling snow and ultimately making it stronger in the long run. However, this warm up we're experiencing is not going to take care of all the faceted sugar at the base of our snowpack. It is probably going to make things trickier because it is adding a strong layer that will "bridge" the underlying weak snow. This might allow quite a bit of new snow to be added before the weak underlying snow under the bridge fails. The snowpack will not be as sensitive to people as it will be harder to break the "bridge" and get collapsing. Time will tell how this turn of events plays out. Continue to accept that the snowpack remains very weak at the base.