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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, February 17, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for shallow new snow sluffs and soft slabs. Small human triggered avalanches are possible.
I am not anticipating much avalanche activity today but I will still be cautious as I figure out how the new snow is behaving.
Use small test slopes (with no consequences) to tweak on the new snow and see if it will crack. If this is happening, avoid bigger slopes and let them settle for a day or so.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
I love it when a storm does better than I anticipated. Most areas on the Skyline received about 5 inches of low density new snow in the last 24 hours. The middle of the Skyline, north of the Horseshoe's, did the best with 14 inches of new snow. Northwest wind wasn't all that strong during the storm and it's slowed even more now. Temperatures are around 10˚F.
Mountain Weather
There are a few clouds lingering this morning and we may see some during the day. High temperatures will be around 20˚F and northwest wind should be light to moderate in speed. Friday and Saturday look like nice days with slightly warmer temperatures. Clouds start to move in late Sunday ahead of the next storm which looks like it'll move through Monday night bringing another shot of snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow is low density powder that fell without much wind. This tells me that it should be pretty well behaved today. However, as after any new snow, you approach the mountains cautiously before just diving into some big lines. Hit some small test slopes on the way up and see if the new snow sluffs or cracks. Look around and see if there was any activity during the storm. Continue doing this all day to get a handle on how the new snow behaves.
Near Surface Facets discussion:
We've gone through a long period of high pressure that has made the old snow surface weak. You could find many areas with sugary loose snow on the surface or just under wind crusts. This weak snow is now buried and the question is whether it will become a Persistent Weak Layer once we get enough new snow on top of it. I sat down and discussed this with other UAC forecasters the other night and we recorded the Zoom meeting:
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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