Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 13, 2022
The avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline remains generally LOW.
Keep in mind that if you are getting onto very steep slopes, there's a chance that you might trigger a small wind drift near the ridgelines.
Sluffing of the surface snow should also be taken into account if you are on steep, long and sustained slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Saturday was another nice day in the hills with sun and a light breeze from the northwest. Riding conditions really need a refresher about now. It's getting harder to find areas with soft snow for good turning. Overnight temperatures were around 20 and the wind is generally light.
Mountain Weather
We'll see lots of sun again today with temperatures once again into the mid 30s. Wind will be from the west and perhaps a little lighter than it has been this week. Weather models are still showing a change in the pattern with storms starting to move through again starting mid week. The first one still looks like a "closed low pressure system" that will dig to our south. It's not ideal for us but we should see some snow out of it. A number of storms are still shaping up behind this first one and it looks like we should get some moisture through the end of the month.
Recent Avalanches
Outside of some minor sluffing of the "near surface facets", there hasn't been any significant avalanche activity. Don't disregard the sluffing though. If you are getting into really steep terrain (40˚ or so) and you have a long, sustained pitch, these minor sluffs can grow as they descend and start to pack a punch. John Pikus did an excellent write up about a sluff he triggered that got large enough to boss him around. CLICK HERE FOR THE REPORT.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The two minor things to watch for today are small wind slabs that may crack out along steep ridgelines and sluffing of the loose sugary "near surface facets". Both of these problems are only found if you are getting into very steep terrain where the slope angle is nearing 40˚ or steeper. Both of these problems are very manageable if you are aware of them and pay attention. If you are finding stiff crusts, you are in an area where you might get a wind drift to crack out. If you are finding nice loose snow that is good turning, that snow is most likely quite sugary and will sluff if it's on a steep enough slope.
As I travel around the backcountry and look at various slopes, I speculate about the potential for the current surface to act as a weak layer when we get more new snow. Southerly facing slopes have sun crusts so these won't be an issue. West, north and east facing slopes are where you find loose sugary snow on the surface. Some slopes are so blasted by the wind that there isn't any loose snow to act as a weak layer. Some slopes have a very evenly distributed layer of sugary snow. I've found a number of these recently that will DEFINITELY be off limits with a new snow load. Then there are others that have a wind crust on the surface but loose sugary snow just underneath. These will be tricky. As a matter of fact, it all could be quite tricky depending on how the future storms shape up.
The message here is that we are accustomed to the current low avalanche danger but things could easily change quickly during upcoming storms.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.