Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, February 11, 2022
Avalanche conditions remain quiet. The avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline remains generally LOW.
The only real concern is if you were to trigger a wind drift and it knocked you down into rocks/cliffs/trees.
Wind slabs that may release on a person seem far and few between but don't let your guard down especially if you're getting into committing terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
It's getting difficult not to sound like a broken record. Conditions remain stagnant. The only thing notable is that there has been a steady northwest wind along the higher ridges the last few days. It hasn't transported all that much snow that I've noticed. Lower elevations have seen warmer temperatures over the last couple of days to the point where the snow became quite damp. Southerly facing slopes are showing signs of melting out with some bare patches showing. You can actually find some decent turning conditions if you hunt around for sheltered terrain with no sun crusts, wind crusts or old tracks.
Mountain Weather
We'll have four more sunny days with ridgetop temperatures into the mid 30s to around 40˚F. Northwest wind will continue to blow in the moderate speed range along the higher terrain today. The weather pattern looks more active starting mid week with a number of storm systems lined up. The first one looks like a large "closed low pressure system" that is going to dig to our south. This means that most of the action will miss us. We'll see how things progress as the event gets nearer.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
During my fieldwork in the mountains I've been keeping an eye on two things. First, I've been poking around trying to find any recent drifts of snow that will crack out. I really haven't been able to find anything notable. I know that there are some out there that are sitting on "near surface facets" from January. However, as I travel around my thinking is there aren't all that many that will crack out on a person right now.
The second thing I've been keeping an eye on is the condition of the surface snow. In many locations there is about 6 inches of sugary "re-crystallized" near surface facets that have formed over the last three weeks. The concern is that this loose snow could act as a weak layer once it's buried by new snow. Some locations hold undisturbed very loose snow. Some locations have a wind crust over the top of the loose snow. Other locations are just a very hard windboard. The distribution of this weak snow on the surface is tricky to map out its distribution. This could produce a very tricky pattern of which slopes might avalanche and which ones won't. All we can do is continue to watch what the snow surface is like before the next storm and hopefully figure out some sort of pattern where things may be dangerous once it snows again.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.