Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, December 4, 2019
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE today in the majority of the terrain along the Skyline. Keep in mind the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE in the high elevation northwest, north and northeast facing terrain where collapsing continues and avalanches are still likely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Welcome to the First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week. We have 20 events scheduled for this week. Check out the schedule here and we hope to see you at an event.
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Weather and Snow
The snowpack has consolidated and become supportable in most locations. Travel is quite easy at this point. There still isn't enough snow for any real snowmobiling off the roads. This is a decent start for the winter. We need to see more snow being added to the snowpack soon otherwise it will start to weaken and turn into faceted sugar snow. Looking at the weather, it does look like the pattern is active although there are no huge storms on our doorstep. The next storm will move through late today into Thursday bringing 3 to 6 inches. The next storm looks like it'll be here late Saturday into Sunday. This one might bring a little more snow than Thursday's storm.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Tuesday. However, collapsing of the snowpack continued on those upper elevation more northerly facing steep slopes. This is a sure sign that the snowpack remains unstable.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The old weak sugar snow from October continues to prove it's weak enough to cause avalanches on those high elevation northwest, north and northeast facing slopes. At this point the slope needs to be pushing 40 degrees in order to avalanche. Don't mess with these slopes right now. We'll keep an eye on the progression of the weak layer and hopefully it will heal in a reasonably short time frame rather than lingering for half the winter. Stay tuned.
Additional Information
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.