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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, December 13, 2020
The avalanche danger is generally LOW across most of the Manti Skyline. However, there is a MODERATE danger of human triggered avalanches in upper elevation more northerly facing slopes that received more than about 8 inches of new snow.
Look for any recent avalanches and watch for cracking within the new snow. These are two "bullseye" clues that the snow is unstable.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Storm snow amounts from Saturday are uneven across the Skyline. Only a few inches of snow accumulated in the Fairview Canyon region. From Pleasant Creek down to the Horseshoes, about 12 inches of snow fell. Ephraim Canyon picked up about 10 inches. 12 Mile Canyon came in at around 6 inches. Just over the ridge in Ferron Canyon, 10 inches accumulated. Temperatures were cold and the snow densities were very low. It's very fluffy powder snow. Temperatures were in the single digits overnight. I would say the wind was about average for a typical snow storm. It was a bit breezy but not out of control. It started out southwest and ended northwest.
Mountain Weather:
We have a nice day ahead with warming temperatures and light wind. High temperatures along the ridgetops will be in the mid 20s. Another storm will roll through on Monday and I'm expecting around 6 inches of snow, give or take. Another storm is shaping up for later in the week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow may be prone to avalanching but you will need to have a number of ingredients. Human triggered avalanches are possible in areas with the following criteria:
  • Areas that received more than about 8 inches.
  • Areas that had pre-existing old snow. (upper elevation more northerly facing terrain)
  • Areas where the wind could drift snow. (generally along higher ridgelines)
It is fairly unlikely that people will trigger avalanches today because the overall lack of snow will make it difficult to get into terrain that have all the ingredients above for avalanches. In other words, you'll have to try pretty hard to get into avalanche terrain.
Additional Information
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