Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, April 8, 2023

There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for wet avalanches on all sunny slopes facing southeast through west. There is also a MODERATE danger for wet avalanches on low elevation northerly facing terrain. On the shady side of the mountain, you will find a MODERATE avalanche danger on slopes facing northwest through north and east for wind-drifted snow avalanches.

Cornices also present an avalanche hazard: stay well back from corniced ridgelines and avoid traveling on slopes with large, overhanging cornices above.

With so much snow, watch out for roof avalanches, especially as the day heats up.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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The report for the Pole Canyon Accident is available HERE. Thank you to the people involved for sharing so much information so that we can all learn from this accident and come home safely to our loved ones.

Weather and Snow

Under mostly cloudy skies, the mountain temperatures range from 33 °F at 6,900' and 33 °F at 8,800'. Winds are blowing from the west-southwest at speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts into the low 30s.

Today we can expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day. Temperatures will climb and range from 40-50 °F at 7,000' in elevation. We could see a few snow flurries today if you're in the right spot. These clouds and flurries should be done by early afternoon when we can see some clearing and sunshine. We then dry out for the next four days with intense sun and warming temperatures. Things could get interesting.

You should be able to find soft/dry snow on northerly wind-protected slopes above about 9,000'. All other snow surfaces will be crusted from strong sunshine over the past three days.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday we had another wet loose avalanche cycle from the strong sun and warm temperatures. In Provo, one rider was caught and carried in a wet loose avalanche 6" deep and 50 feet wide. Around the compass, many aspects and elevations became damp and wet, followed by roller balls and, finally, wet loose avalanches. Outside of wet avalanches, the observations of large and destructive avalanches from the past week continue to pour in, and I would click through these observations as the avalanches are beyond impressive:

Roof avalanche / Loan Peak / Whitesnake / Stairs Gulch / Grizzly Gulch / Mount Superior / White Pine Chutes / Cardiac Ridge / George's Bowl

Photo: Cardiff Fork Big Cottonwood Canyon.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Today it will be tough to say how much we will warm and what the snow surfaces will do. We have partly cloudy skies, and temperatures will be about as warm as yesterday (many stations topping out in the mid-40s F) with southerly winds blowing 10-20 mph. Because of this, I am reasonably uncertain how wet the snow will really get.

This morning you can expect a shallow re-freeze of the snow surface. As the day warms and the temperatures rise, the snowpack can become damp, wet, and then unstable. While most of the avalanche activity will be wet-loose type avalanches, there remains the possibility that you can trigger an avalanche deeper into the snowpack that fails on old crusts or softer (colder) layers deeper down, as seen by the recent avalanche activity.

This is an easy problem to avoid: head to northerly-facing slopes where the snow is dry and cold.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Yesterday's southerly winds were just strong enough to blow and drift snow across the mid and upper elevations. During my field day in Ogden, I saw plenty of drifting snow along the ridglines but it didn't appear to be drifting much below that. However, be on the lookout for fresh drifts of wind-blown snow and avoid those areas.

Although instabilities within the recent storm snow have mostly settled out, there are some isolated slopes where you could trigger an avalanche, especially on any slope that is heavily wind-drifted.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Immense cornices adorn most exposed ridgelines and are likely to become increasingly sensitive to warming temperatures. Cornice falls have two primary hazards:

1. Large and hard chunks of cornice debris could fall and crush you.

2. Cornice falls can trigger an avalanche onto the slope below, such as in Upper Days that occurred either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Travel advice: Stay well back from cornices when traveling along ridgelines, and do not travel underneath any large, overhanging cornices.

Glide avalanches are a real threat this time of year, and many glide cracks are starting to yawn and sag more and more with each passing day. At any point, these full-depth catastrophic avalanches could release. Therefore, I would advise not traveling in areas known for glide avalanches like Stairs Gulch, Broads Fork, Mill B, Mineral Fork, Mineral Slabs, and many others.

Additional Information

Forecaster Mindset: It's spring and things can change fast in the mountains now. Today's forecast is challenging, and I have a great deal of uncertainty about wet snow and, in general, the overall snowpack. We've received record-breaking snowfall (old news now), and with so much snow on the mountain, it's hard to imagine the scale and the size of the avalanches that have been happening. For me, there is too much new snow and weight hanging in space, and I've backed way off. I am not walking under or riding any large avalanche path at the moment. I am giving these mountains the respect they deserve as they change dramatically with warming temperatures and the recent heavy snowfall from the past month.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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