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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, April 3, 2021
The avalanche danger will quickly rise to CONSIDERABLE as the snow becomes wet under the strong sunshine and very warm temperatures. Wet avalanches may be both natural and human-triggered and occur on steep east, south, and west aspects, as well as northerly aspects, especially at the low and mid-elevations.
Timing is everything - move off and out from underneath steep slopes once the snow surface becomes wet and unconsolidated. Today is not the day to be on or underneath steep, sunlit slopes during the heat of the day.
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Weather and Snow
Under clear skies, high pressure has taken hold, the mountain temperatures are inverted with Arrowhead Peak (8,250') reading 50 °F, and just a stone's throw away Aspen Grove (6,900') reading 33 °F. Most weather stations above about 8,500' are reading temperatures in the upper 40's °F. Winds are generally from the southwest and blowing 5-10 mph.
Today's forecast for the SLC Airport is set to be a record-breaker with temperatures climbing into the 80's °F. Mountain temperatures will quickly climb into the 60's °F today at about 8,500'. Lawnchair, bbq, and zinc, anyone?
Recent Avalanches
Other than a few wet loose avalanches from yesterday, we had no significant avalanche activity reported.

Our Week in Review highlights significant snow and avalanche events from the past week and has been published.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With record-breaking temperatures forecast and plenty of sunshine, today will be a good day to quickly be in and out of the mountains. Do not overstay your welcome on steep, sunlit terrain as the snowpack is becoming wetter and wetter from the past few days of strong sunshine and warming temperatures. Honestly, I have no clue if the snowpack will see a natural avalanche cycle today from the heat or not. BUT, I do know that I wouldn't be riding or hiking on any steep, sunlit slope this afternoon. The Wet Snow Avalanche Problem covers two types of avalanches:
Wet Loose Avalanches - These typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface caused by warming temperatures and strong sunshine. As the snow becomes wet, the upper surface layers become unconsolidated as the bonds between the snow grains lose their cohesion. They start at a point and typically fan out as they move downhill. These avalanches can entrain a lot of snow, especially in a tight rock-lined chute or in sustained steep terrain. The first sign of wet loose avalanches is usually rollerballs or pinwheels. Today, these avalanches can happen naturally or be human-triggered.
Wet Slab Avalanches - This is a tough one; we haven't seen any wet slab avalanche activity in the backcountry up to this point. However, on our second night with temperatures above freezing, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some wet slab avalanche activity today or tomorrow. Basically, the way this works is your slab (stronger snow) fails on wet saturated snow grains below in the snowpack somewhere. Meltwater can also saturate a layer of snow, and that becomes the weak layer releasing the slab of stronger snow above. Unfortunately, we/I really don't have a good grasp on forecasting this avalanche problem. Therefore I've attached a paper on this topic HERE.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.