Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, March 23, 2023

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all upper slopes where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Any bump in winds will continue to form unstable slabs of wind-drifted snow on all upper-elevation slopes and mid-elevation lee-ward facing slopes. Both loose snow and slab avalanches may be possible within the different layers of new snow from the past few days.

All mid-elevation slopes have a MODERATE avalanche danger, as they have received generally less wind and less snow.

Watch for any signs of instability within the new snow and wind-drifted snow such as cracking, collapsing and sluffing.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are overcast, lightly snowing, and temperatures are in the low to mid 20s F. Overnight the mountains received 2-3" of snow, bringing current snow totals between 8-12". Overnight winds began to decrease blowing from the west-southwest at speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts close to 40 mph.

Today, snow showers will continue into the evening, with periods of heavy snowfall. The mountains could receive an additional 3-5" of new snow, with 0.3-0.5" of water before 5 PM. The southwest winds will remain moderate blowing 10-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

Heavier snow will be likely tonight into tomorrow morning as the next storm system pushes through the area through the weekend. A quick-hitting cold front, with additional snowfall, arrives tomorrow with temperatures plummeting to near 0°F. Unsettled through the weekend with a break for a few days early next week.

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches reported from the Provo area mountains.

In the Central Wasatch, reports continue to trickle in of easily triggered shallow soft slabs within the new snow that have been triggered over the last two days. Most of these were approx 6-12" deep, failing on the new snow/old snow interface. Ski resorts also reported easily triggered both loose dry and soft slab avalanches within new snow, and sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow.

A shallow, skier-triggered avalanche on Figure 8 Hill Yesterday. Failed 10" deep, and approx 60' wide. This avalanche is a good representation of the primary types of new snow avalanches in the backcountry yesterday. Find the full write-up from Figure 8 Hill HERE.

Find all the recent observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Wind speeds have decreased, but with so much soft snow available for transport any small bump in wind will move snow around and continue to form soft slabs of wind-drifted snow up to 20" deep. These slabs will be most pronounced on lee-ward-facing slopes, but the past few days of high winds could have loaded any aspect at the upper elevations as winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains.

With new snow throughout the day slopes with any signs of wind-drifted snow, such as texture and pillow-shaped features, may become more challenging to identify. For that reason, I would approach steep terrain feature that could allow for drifting snow to accumulate as if triggering a fresh soft slab is possible.

CORNICES are not to be messed with. Limit your exposure to ridgelines near cornices, and slopes below cornices. A cornice fall could trigger a larger slab of wind-drifted snow below.

Large cornices along the Millcreek Ridgeline

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Across the range, the new snow has a variety of excellent bed surfaces, and new snow/old snow interfaces to slide on from the last week. Out of the wind zone, you can expect to find sensitive soft slabs of new snow and fast, long-running sluffs on all aspects.

When the snowfall rates are higher, generally greater than 1" per hour, avalanches will be easier to trigger, and more likely to act as a cohesive slab. Pay attention to changing weather and increased snowfall rates.

Think about the type of terrain you are traveling in today, even a small avalanche can be deadly in consequential terrain. Look for obvious signs of instability like cracking, and collapsing.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner:

What does Acceptable Risk even mean?

Through an avalanche accident earlier this winter, Drew has been able to put together a clear example of what he believes defines acceptable risk. Read more on this HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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