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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Tuesday morning, March 2, 2021
Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE. On southerly and west-facing slopes, wet avalanches of loose snow will become possible as the snow surface warms and becomes wet.
On all upper elevation slopes and most mid-elevation slopes (except south and southwest facing) there remains a chance of triggering a hard slab avalanche on a deeply buried persistent weak layer.
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Moderate
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High
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday, winds were almost non-existent. High temperatures reached the mid to upper 30s F, but it felt a lot warmer than that in the strong March sunshine. The snow surface became wet on east, south, and west-facing slopes while north-facing slopes maintained dry powder.
This morning, temperatures are mostly in the upper 20s and low 30s F. Winds shifted overnight, increased, and began blowing from the southwest at 10 mph gusting to 20 mph.
Today will be similar to yesterday with clear skies, strong sunshine, and light winds. A few high clouds should arrive this afternoon. Temperatures at low and mid-elevations should climb to the upper 30s F and low 40s F. Southerly winds will blow 5-15 mph.
Snow depths range from 3-4 feet deep. Snowfall on Friday/Saturday delivered 2-6 inches of snow which remains on north-facing slopes. After getting wet yesterday and refreezing overnight, there should be an ice crust on the snow surface on all other slopes.
Recent Avalanches
Under yesterday's strong sunshine and warm temperatures, the new snow became wet and there were some small wet avalanches of loose snow on east, south, and west aspects. One person observed five different slides in about a half-hour just above Aspen Grove.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's strong sunshine and warm temperatures will make the snow surface wet, but it will take a little longer than yesterday since an ice crust on the snow surface from last night's refreeze will have to melt first. As the day heats up, wet avalanches of loose snow will become possible. These wet snow avalanches will mainly involve the new snow that fell Friday/Saturday.
Pay attention to the snow becoming wet, then look for balls of snow rolling downhill and growing in size and occurring more frequently. Seeing these clues will tell you that loose wet avalanches may start happening. They tend to happen more near exposed rocks that absorb heat from the sun and help warm the snow faster.
Photo below shows these roller balls under exposed rocks (E. Romer)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, avalanches can still break near the ground on a persistent weak layer of old faceted snow that caused many avalanches about two weeks ago. The odds of triggering one of these slides has gone down significantly but the consequences remain severe. The tricky part of the situation is that in areas further north that received a lot more snow, the snowpack is much deeper and triggering a slide on this layer is very difficult. The Provo area mountains received less snow during the Valentine's storms and had less snow on the ground prior to those storms. All of this means that a rider can still impact this layer and trigger an avalanche.
One complicating factor - Many slopes produced big avalanches two weeks ago and will have maybe 2 feet of snow on top of the bed surface. We haven't heard of any avalanches repeating on these slopes, but I would be hesitant to totally trust them without doing a thorough assessment which could be difficult because the only way to examine the snowpack on these slopes will be to go into the avalanche starting zone.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.