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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Wednesday morning, February 19, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at the mid and upper elevations for triggering a soft slab of new snow that could be 1-2 feet deep and up to 100 feet wide, and in some terrain, it could be wider. Human triggered avalanches are possible. At elevations below, 8,000' the avalanche danger is LOW.
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Weather and Snow
Under mostly clear skies this morning, it will be a spectacular day to be in the mountains. Temperatures remain cold, with most locations hovering in the mid to low teens °F this morning. Winds did pick up overnight and are currently blowing from the northwest at 10-15 mph with gusts into the low 20's mph across the upper elevation ridgelines. At 11,000' the wind is blowing 25-30 mph gusting into the 40's.
We will have a dry trough move overhead late this morning that may bring some mid to high-level clouds for a short time this afternoon. As this trough moves east, the winds will veer to the north, and the clouds will dissipate. The riding and turning conditions remain stellar with soft snow on many aspects and elevations. The sunny slopes will support a thin sun crust from the past two days of sunshine. Mountain temperatures will climb into the mid 20's °F at the mid-elevations (8,500').
Recent Avalanches
In the past four days, there have been 13 human triggered avalanches in the Ogden, SLC, and Provo area mountains. Yesterday, we had two reports of human-triggered avalanches that were both 6"-10" deep and up to 100' wide failing on a very-low-density layer of snow just above the February 7th crust. You can find all the recent avalanche activity HERE. See the heat map image below (right photo).
Monday in the Ogden backcountry, two riders narrowly escaped disaster when they triggered an avalanche on a steep northeast facing slope at 9,200' in elevation. As the skier dropped into a tight chute, the avalanche was triggered, and he was caught, carried and buried with just the tip of his ski poking through the snow. Both riders did not have a beacon, shovel, or probe. Luckily, his partner was able to dig with his hands and clear the buried skier's airway (left photo). You can find the preliminary report HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
All of the recent avalanche activity has been the result of very-low-density snow (weak layer) with denser more cohesive snow above (slab). This fragile snow is now buried 1-2 feet deep and is very easy to find because it sits just above the February 7th crust. Usually, new snow instabilities settle out rapidly and bond quickly to the underlying snow. However, because there is such a dramatic difference in hardness at this interface, human triggered avalanches will remain possible today. These avalanches will be soft slabs of snow that could be 1-2 feet deep and up to 100 feet wide. In terrain that has been loaded by the wind, the only difference will be the avalanche you trigger will be a bit deeper.
If you decide to ride steep terrain today, make sure you set yourself up for success with slopes that have a clean run-out that avoids cliffs, trees, and terrain traps. Have an exit strategy, and keep an eye on your partner at all times. By keeping an eye on your partner, this allows you to be ready to help them in case an avalanche were to happen.
Danger trend: decreasing
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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