Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, February 16, 2021

DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Today the avalanche danger is HIGH at mid and upper elevations. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at low elevations. Avoid all avalanche terrain and avoid being under or near any steep slope. Even very small slopes can bury a person.

Heavy snowfall, strong westerly winds, and a weak faceted snowpack have created very dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural and human triggered avalanches are very likely. Even unusual avalanches are possible in atypical terrain on atypical aspects and elevations.

Anybody going into or near the mountains today should avoid being near or under any steep slope - this includes skiing, snowshoeing, running, sledding, dog walking, etc.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

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Avalanche Warning

WARNING ISSUED

THE AVALANCHE DANGER RANGES FROM HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE WARNING AREA

IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY

FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.

VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES

Special Announcements

The final report about the Wilson Glade avalanche in Millcreek Canyon has been published. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved in this tragic accident.

NOTE: FEB 1-8th was one of the deadlier weeks on record with 15 backcountry fatalities in the US.

Dangerous avalanche conditions still exist.

Weather and Snow

This morning, it is snowing in the mountains. Mountain temperatures are in the mid-teens to low 20s F, and westerly winds have increased averaging 15-25 mph and gusting 50 mph at upper elevations. The new snowfall and high winds are rapidly loading our snowpack.

Today, the snowfall and high winds will continue. Temperatures will stay in the upper 20s and low 30s F, and westerly winds will average 15-25 mph and gust up to 50 mph at the upper elevations. The Provo area mountains should pick up another 3-6" of snow before 5 PM this evening.

For this storm, the snowfall and wind should continue into Wednesday morning before tapering off into dry weather Thursday. We can expect storm totals to be 4-8" for Provo.

Storm totals with the last 24 hours:

Provo Area: 3-12" snow (.24" - .66" H2O)

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were no new reports of avalanche activity in the Provo area.

Overnight, a large natural avalanche cycle occurred within Little Cottonwood Canyon. At this time the full extent not known but infrasound readings point to debris across road in multiple locations.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Overnight we added a huge snow load and high winds to our very weak and faceted snowpack. Today will be the day to trigger deep and destructive avalanches 3-5'+ deep and hundreds of feet wide.

The most suspect terrain continues to be the west through north through southeast facing aspects at mid and upper elevations. HOWEVER, with so much snowfall and wind - I am worried that some upper elevation south-facing terrain and low elevation north-facing terrain will become active today. The dangerous snowpack structure is there, and with any uncertainty, it is worth treating all suspect slopes with the same caution.

Keep in mind:

Existing tracks on the slope offer zero signs of stability.
Avalanches can be triggered from a distance or below.
Any fresh wind slab or new snow avalanche may step down several feet into older snow.

These types of avalanches are most pronounced in steep, thin rocky terrain...and areas that have previously avalanched this winter. They may be more prevalent along the Park City Ridgeline, Upper Mill Creek, Upper American Fork, and the Snake Creek drainages.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With the heavy snowfall and strong westerly winds, new slabs of wind drifted snow will continue to form and produce avalanches today. Some of these avalanches can be triggered by people, some of these avalanches will occur on their own. The high winds can load a slope 10 times faster than just snowfall on its own. This combination of loading from winds and snowfall will make any wind-loaded slope very dangerous to travel near or under.

Even though winds are blowing from the west, slopes at any aspect at mid and upper elevations can be affected. Look for signs of recent wind loading such as smooth, rounded, pillow shaped deposits of snow.

Additionally, these elevated winds will increase the size of our cornices adorning many ridgelines, making them possibly even more sensitive. Stay well back from - and avoid travel below - corniced ridges.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

In any areas not impacted by the high winds, you will see new snow avalanches on all aspects and elevations.

During higher rates of snowfall (greater than1 an inch per hour), avalanches will be easier to trigger. Periods of snowfall exceeding 1 inch per hour are likely to continue throughout the day.

These new snow avalanches can impact anybody going into or near the mountains today including skiing, snowshoeing, running, dog walking, sledding, etc.

Avoid traveling near or below steep slopes as these new snow avalanches can run fast and far. Extreme caution is required.

General Announcements

Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures