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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Thursday morning, December 31, 2020
The most likely place to trigger an avalanche today will be upper elevation slopes facing NW, N, NE, & E especially if they have some wind-blown snow on them. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in these locations.
Otherwise, triggering an avalanche has become harder to do, and the danger is MODERATE on other upper elevation slopes and on all mid elevation slopes.
A LOW avalanche danger exists on all low elevation slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Utah Avalanche Center podcast's second episode of season 4 is live - Managing Risk with Avalanches, Managing Risk with a Pandemic - A Conversation with state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.
Stream here or tune in wherever you get your favorite podcasts

Read a few short anecdotes in a blog from UAC staff about how avalanches can surprise us

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Weather and Snow
This morning a trace of snow has fallen as of 5 a.m. Temperatures are generally near 20 deg F and about 10-14 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds yesterday shifted from the northwest to west and then southwest this morning blowing 6-10 mph gusting to 20 mph.
Today an inch of two of snow should accumulate mainly this morning. Skies will remain cloudy and temperatures should warm into the mid 20s F. Winds should remain light and slowly shift and come from the northwest.
This weekend will be dry, but some snow could come Monday night and again Wednesday night. No major accumulations are expected but we'll take what we can get.
Recent Avalanches
There was one small avalanche spotted yesterday in Broads Fork. Cracking and loud audible collapses continue to be reported by many especially in less traveled areas like Box Elder, Broads Fork, Maybird, and Mill B South. Snowpit tests continue to show propagation (photo below from Box Elder Peak by S. Donovan), meaning that avalanches can still be triggered. Further south near Mt Nebo, snowmobilers found about 2 feet of snow on shady aspects that is very weak and faceted.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overall the snowpack has been very thin which has led to it becoming very weak and faceted. To get an avalanche, there needs to be a slab on top of this weak snow which is most likely at upper elevations especially on slopes with wind drifted snow.

The most likely places to trigger a slide today are slopes with some wind-loading especially on more northerly facing slopes with the weakest snow. The little extra weight of wind drifted snow keeps the buried facets stressed and ready to fracture.
Where to ride today? Two options exist:
  1. Ride slopes less than 30 degrees that aren't steep enough to slide.
  2. Ride slopes facing south where this persistent weak layer generally doesn't exist and avoid pockets of wind drifted snow. These slopes don't have much snow but have become much more supportable.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.