Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, December 1, 2020
The avalanche danger is LOW, and we generally have safe avalanche conditions.
However, with gusts over 40 mph overnight, small stubborn slabs of wind drifted snow will be something to look out for today. These wind slabs will be generally shallow and isolated to terrain features that allow for drifting snow to accumulate.

REMEMBER that getting caught in even a small avalanche could have significant consequences with the risk of hitting a rock, stump, or downed timber.
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Weather and Snow
This morning, under broken skies the Northwesterly winds have begun to decrease after hitting averages up to 20 mph and gusts up to 40 mph at the upper-most elevations early this morning. Temperatures are in the low-20s F at trailheads and mid-teens F at upper elevations. The Ogden area mountains picked up a trace amount of snow.
The Provo mountains have roughly 6-12", the best riding will be found on shaded north-facing terrain if you can find anywhere holding soft snow from Thanksgiving that hasn't been impacted by the strong winds. Before the winds the Provo area mountains were growing impressive surface hoar on open North facing terrain, that surface hoar likely got knocked over during the elevated winds. The South-facing aspects have been going through a melt-freeze cycle, leading to a firm surface crust in the morning.
Photo of recent surface hoar growth from the Provo area mountains (PC: Woody)
Today, winds will continue to decrease throughout the day as the skies become clear. The winds will continue to be Northwesterly, and elevated, gusting up to 30 mph at mid-elevations and 50 mph at upper elevations. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s F as this cold air mass stays in the area through mid-week.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches reported in the Provo area backcountry Yesterday.
In the Salt Lake Area mountains Pro observer Mark White saw some small fast-running dry sluffs in in the weak faceted snow of No-name Bowl Sunday.
Video of the "facet sluffs" from No-Name Bowl (PC: M. White)
Recent observations can be found by clicking here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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Description
With such a shallow snowpack in the Provo area mountains, the danger is generally LOW, however continue to be aware of two things:
1- Wind Drifts: Strong overnight winds could have transported any lingering soft snow and formed stubborn shallow drifts at Provo's upper most elevations. Look for isolated shallow slabs of wind drifted snow on isolated upper elevation terrain features that snow could be deposited, such as ridgelines and gullies. These wind drifts can be found on all upper elevation aspects.
Look for any slopes with signs of wind drifted snow, and avoid those slopes. Wind affected snow often looks wavy, rounded, pillowy, and can sound hollow when walking or riding on it.
2- Dry Sluffs: If you find any steep North-facing terrain features that weren't impacted by the winds the surface snow has become so weak and cohesionless that skiers and riders can to trigger "facet sluffs". While relatively small in size and predictable, any size avalanche could knock you off your feet and sweep you through dangerous terrain features.
Remember: ANY involvement in an avalanche is likely to result in traumatic injury due to the thin, early season snow cover.
Additional Information
Looking Ahead: Although our current snowpack is thin, there is widespread variability. Strong winds in the middle of November scoured many slopes, while others got a firm wind slab compressed into the terrain. Since that time, we have had several cold and clear nights that promote a "faceting" process which weakens the snowpack, turning the snow crystals into sharp, angular, weak grains. With high pressure forecast for at least the next week, this faceting process will continue.
In the long term, this weakening snow will become an issue once we get a load of storm or wind-driven snow on top of this weak snowpack structure. A perfect recipe for avalanche conditions.
Forecaster Greg Gagne gives a summary of what the snow looks like under his feet in upper Big Cottonwood on Thursday.
Weather Outlook: The longer-range models do not look particularly good for storms through mid-December.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.