Join us at our 2nd Annual Blizzard Ball
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Sunday morning, January 31, 2021
The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation aspects facing northwest, through north, and southeast. Upper elevation aspects facing south, southwest, and west - and mid-elevation aspects facing northwest, through the north, through southeast- have a CONSIDERABLE danger. Additional new snow and recent strong southerly winds have overloaded the snowpack on many slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Any natural or human-triggered avalanche can be 2-4' deep, over a few hundred feet wide, and likely unsurvivable.
TRAVELING IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
If you're leaving a resort boundary through an exit point, you are stepping into CONSIDERABLE or HIGH avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Avalanche Bulletin
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST MONDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE TO HIGH IN MANY AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. AVALANCHES COULD BE LARGE, VERY DANGEROUS, UNEXPECTED, AND PERHAPS DEADLY.
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
After picking up a final few inches of snow yesterday morning, the storm tapered off and high pressure began to build over the area. This morning, under clear skies we have an inversion in the mountains with temperatures ranging from the single digits to mid-teens F. Winds are light, averaging below 10 mph with gusts near 20 mph at the highest ridgelines.
Today, high pressure will continue to build bringing sunny skies in the morning, and increasing cloud cover in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s F, and southerly winds will remain calm with gusts below 30 mph at the upper ridgelines.
The final rough snow totals below:
Provo Mountains: 10"-12" new snow (1.0"-1.51" water)
Week in Review: This past week has been active with lots of (1) snow, (2) wind, and (3) avalanches. Catch up by reading our latest Week in Review.
Recent Avalanches
With great sadness, the Utah Avalanche Center reports there has been an avalanche accident off of Squaretop Peak, located on the Park City Ridgeline. The preliminary information can be found HERE. Because of the extreme danger of the area, the rescue is ongoing and will continue this morning.
Following the rescue operations, UAC Staff, along with PCMR Ski Patrol, will investigate the accident and will have the full report available in a couple of days.
Yesterday was an extremely active day in the backcountry, in the Provo area there were two avalanches reported in the backcountry.
  • Primrose Cirque - Southeast Aspect - 9,200' - A natural avalanche that broke 2' deep and 150' wide
  • Timpanogos - South/Southeast Aspect - 10,600' - An large impressive avalanche, dimensions unknown.
Photo of the Timpanogos Avalanche (PC: UDOT)
The avalanche list is growing, and as always, you can find all observations and recent avalanches HERE.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday there were close to 20 avalanches reported in the backcountry across the Wasatch. The combination of strong winds and the additional weight from the new snow has stressed our weak and faceted snowpack beyond its breaking point.
The snowpack is starting to show its cards and is now producing deep and dangerous avalanches that are breaking 2'-4' deep and hundreds of feet wide. If the area has any signs of wind loading from late last week, we could see even deeper avalanches breaking, up to 5-10' deep, that initially fail in the wind drifted snow and step down into the weak faceted snow near the ground. Either way, these avalanches are likely to be unsurvivable.
Over the past two days, we've also stacked up 10"-20" of new snow across the range. Today, we could see a few soft slab avalanches that fail within the new storm snow. In my mind, this problem is just shadowing the true killer, which is the persistent weak layer. Any new snow avalanche triggered might be enough to step down into deeper weaker layers.
Bottom Line: Our snowpack is a junk show and shouldn't be messed with right now. There is no outsmarting this problem - avoidance is the answer. If you're heading out into the backcountry today, be sure to stick to terrain that's under 30° degrees in slope steepness with nothing steep above or adjacent to you. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance, and from below. Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Observations and Avalanches
Backcountry Emergency Procedures
Instagram
Facebook
Get Forecast Email
Previous Forecasts
Contact via email
Submit Observation
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >