Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, January 10, 2023

The avalanche danger is HIGH at upper elevations where natural avalanches are occurring. The avalanche danger is HIGH in mid elevation terrain because of overhead hazard and at lower elevations because of heavy rain and reported wet loose avalanches already hitting the highway.

Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avoid travel below steep terrain as avalanches have the potential to run into lower elevation flat areas near trailheads or overrun ice climbing routes.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Avalanche Watch

Updated 1230PM

What

The avalanche danger for the Provo area mountains is currently HIGH and will remain elevated at this level as more snow and wind are forecast to affect the area through 0600am on January 11, 2023

When

In effect from 1230pm MST to 6am MST Wednesday

Where

For the Provo area mountains.

Impacts

Recent heavy snow combined with wind is creating widespread areas of unstable snow. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Weather and Snow

Overnight mountain locations reported 14" of new snow and 2-2.7" of water. Storm totals are 18-20" snow and 2.8-3.2" of water. It is currently snowing, and the last few hours have been steady inch an hour snowfall rates.

Temperatures are in the low 30's F. Winds are blowing southwest 30 gusting to 45 MPH at the 8000' ridgelines.

Today will bring continued clouds and 5-9" of snow. Temperatures will be 35-39 F. Winds will blow from the southwest 30 gusting to 45 MPH at the 9000' ridgelines and west-southwest 40 gusting to 80 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. The freezing level will hover between 6,000' and 7,000' throughout the day.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning effective until 5:00pm on Wednesday. This morning's southerly flow storm will bring higher density snow before winds shift to the northwest bringing lower density snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Recent Avalanches

This morning ski area and highway operations reported natural avalanche activity running from the highest elevation terrain down to the flats. There were also reports of wet loose avalanches hitting the road.

Photo: UDOT Provo Bridal Veil Falls Avalanche from early this morning.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Natural avalanches have been reported this morning and will continue as long as it is snowing hard. Wet loose avalanche activity will continue as heavy rains fall on the snowpack at lower elevations.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

New and developed pillows of wind drifted snow can be found in upper and mid elevation terrain. These areas of wind-drifted snow have now been buried under new snow and will be harder to see.

Watch for sensitive cornices primarily on north-east facing ridgelines where snow has been transported over the last twenty-four hours.

Any wind drifted avalanche may step down into a deeper buried weak layer resulting in a larger avalanche.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The deeply-buried persistent weak layer (PWL) from November continues to gain strength and it has become harder to initiate an avalanche on this layer. It may take a significant trigger - a large cornice fall, multiple riders on a slope, or another avalanche adding more weight to the snowpack to trigger this layer. Any avalanche triggered on this weak faceted snow would 2-7' deep.

Areas where you are more likely to trigger this PWL are shallow thinner spots and rocky ridges.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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