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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Sunday morning, February 16, 2025
The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation slopes where it is very likely that you will trigger a new or wind-drifted snow avalanche failing on one of many buried weak layers. These avalanches will be deep enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at mid and lower elevations.
What makes this snowpack complex is trying to outsmart it. If I respect it and give it time then things will change. Until then, lower angle terrain has great coverage and soft surface conditions are everywhere on slopes under 30°.
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Special Announcements
In the last two weeks we have had two avalanche fatalities. Both reports are now available on our website, February 8th's avalanche in the East Bowl of Silver Fork can be found (HERE) and the report for the February 3rd avalanche fatality on Monte Cristo (Ogden Mountains) is (HERE).
Weather and Snow
Currently, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are in the mid-20's °F. Winds are blowing from the south in the teens gusting to the 20's at the lower ridgelines and from the southwest in the 30's at the highest ridgelines.
Today, look for partly cloudy skies with increasing clouds and a chance of 1"-3" of snow and up to .3" of water. Temperatures will be 30-34 °F and winds will blow lightly at the lower ridgelines and from the west 30 gusting to 40 MPH at the higher ridgelines.
This last storm was great for our season with storm totals ranging from 15"-30" of snow and 1.50"-4.5" of water.
Recent Avalanches
Over the last two days, a few backcountry avalanches have been reported to the Utah Avalanche Center from the Ogden Region. Ski area operations reported natural new snow and wind-drifted snow avalanches 2'-3' deep in upper elevation terrain outside of their boundaries.
There were some great observations from the Cutler Region HERE and HERE and you can check out all avalanches and observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds have created sensitive wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Cornices have grown large and may break further back from ridgelines than you expect. Any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer. Avoid any wind-drifted slope.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The simple explanation is we have multiple buried weak faceted layers buried under a Utah style storm and all the wishcasting in the world isn't going to make the weak layers go away right now. Avoiding avalanche terrain is the only way to avoid these avalanches. Don't travel on or underneath slopes greater than 30° in steepness that could be harboring one of our buried weak layers.
  • There are a number of buried weak layers in our snowpack this season, with additional snow and wind any of these layers are weak enough that they could avalanche deep enough to bury a human
  • We have a weak layer of sugary facets near the ground, formed in November/December and has caused many large avalanches this season. This layer is most likely to be triggered in steep, thin snowpack areas, and on repeater slopes
  • We have a layer of buried near surface facets that are now buried 2'–3.5' feet deep, formed during the cold weather at the end of January that is located at all aspects and elevations including mid and low elevation terrain
    UAC forecaster Greg Gagne was in the Ben Lomond zone yesterday and was getting propagation in snow pits on facets on both sides of a buried crust
  • .
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday, there were reports of dry loose sloughing and of cracking and collapsing within the new snow, this is a sign of unstable conditions and if you see cracking and collapsing avoid being on or underneath steep slopes. Some of these instabilities will settle out quickly and others will not. Today's avalanche problem will be less in your face than yesterday.
Any hint of sun today will create wet loose avalanches on steep rocky slopes, gully features, and above roads and trails.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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