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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Friday morning, February 14, 2025
The avalanche danger is HIGH on all aspects and elevations where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Low-elevation southerly-facing slopes have a CONSIDERABLE danger.
Avoid all avalanche terrain today.
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Avalanche Warning
What
The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH today and may rise to EXTREME in some areas this weekend.
When
Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected through the weekend.
Where
For all the mountains of Utah and Southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Mountains, Wasatch Plateau, Manti Skyline, the La Sal Mountains, the Tushar Range....
Impacts
Heavy snow and drifting by strong winds have created widespread areas of unstable snow and very dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. People should avoid travel in all avalanche terrain and keep out of avalanche runouts. This means you should stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Special Announcements
  • A preliminary report on Saturday’s avalanche fatality in the East Bowl of Silver Fork can be found [HERE]. We hope to have the full report out very soon.
  • The full report on the February 3rd avalanche fatality on Monte Cristo (Ogden Mountains) is published [HERE].
  • The accident report detailing the full and partial burial close call in Dutch Draw (Park City ridgeline) from Saturday is available [HERE].
Weather and Snow
This Morning: Temperatures are in the 20's F and winds are from the south/southwest, gusting in the 40's mph along exposed mid and upper elevation ridgelines. As of 6 am, 24-hour snow totals are 12-20" of snow containing 2-3.75" of water, with the highest totals on Ben Lomond.
Today: The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning most of the mountains in the state. Today's snowfall arrives on a southwest flow that favors the Ogden-area mountains, with 6-12" of snow expected by sunset. Temperatures will rise into the upper 20's and low 30's F and south/southwest winds will remain moderate to strong at the mid and upper elevations. Today's rain/snow line will hover around 5,500'
The flow switches to the northwest this evening, a setup that isn't as favorable for the Ogden mountains, although we should pick up a few additional inches of snow overnight. Snow will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief break Sunday morning, with another storm entering the region Sunday afternoon and into Monday. The pattern appears to remain active.
Recent Avalanches
There were no reported avalanches on Thursday, but to our south in the Salt Lake mountains, there was a close call in an avalanche in Butler Basin on Thursday involving two partial burials [photo below]. The avalanche was 2.5 feet deep and 150 feet wide, breaking down into old faceted snow. This was yet another repeater slope that had avalanched on January 12.
Observations and Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds have created sensitive wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Watch for cracking as an indication of sensitive conditions. Cornices have also grown large and sensitive and may break much further than expected.
On upper elevation northerly-facing slopes, any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The storm snow will be reactive today, failing within density inversions or at the interface with the old snow surface.
On upper elevation northerly-facing slopes, any avalanche involving storm snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There are some upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through east where a persistent weak layer can be found, both down near the ground or 1-2 feet below the snow surface. This problem has widespread spatial variability, with slopes that have previously avalanched this season - known as repeater slopes - the most suspect.
Today's heavy snowfall and wind-drifted snow may overload this weak layer, with avalanches failing 2-3 feet deep possible in isolated areas.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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