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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Wednesday morning, April 12, 2023
The avalanche danger will be CONSIDERABLE at all elevations facing east, south, and west where wet loose avalanches will be likely. Due to prolonged above-freezing temperatures and liquid water moving through the snowpack, there becomes a chance of some larger, more destructive wet slab avalanches happening as well.
Wet debris can stack up very deep, especially in terrain traps like gullies. Pay attention to the snow surface. If you start seeing signs that the snow surface becoming unsupportable, it's time to re-evaluate the terrain you are traveling in, and traveling below and above.
The cornices are massive, and with such warm temperatures, natural cornice fall will be likely today. Give cornices, and slopes below cornices a wide berth.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is open. 4x4 recommended. Expect the road to be wet, sloppy, and muddy in the afternoon.
Grooming: Trails were groomed into Gold Basin last Wednesday.
The final UAC report for the Upper Weber Canyon avalanche accident on March 9 has been published and is available HERE. The UAC would like to thank Park City Powder Cats for sharing information about the timeline of the accident and allowing UAC staff access to the avalanche after the incident.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 315" Base Depth at Gold Basin 104"
Temp 38 F Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 15 G 24
Weather
This morning, mountain temperatures are currently in the mid-30s F in Gold Basin, with an overnight low of 37 F. The southerly winds are now averaging 15-20 mph, with gusts near 25 mph.
Today, skies will be mostly sunny, with temperatures climbing into the upper-40s F and mid-50s F. The south southwesterly winds will increase into the afternoon, averaging 25-35 mph. By Thursday, temperatures could drop into the mid-40s with the chance of light snow showers, elevated winds and even some thunder.
General Conditions
Strong winds, warm temperatures, and intense April sun are taking a toll on the snowpack. We have found that high-elevation North faces have been holidng the best snow, but I would guess that is becoming more scarce with every warm day. Once you lose some elevation the skiing gets a bit slow and manky on Northerlies, and the snow surface is becoming saturated and wet on the solars. With no overnight refreeze, solar aspects will be wet this morning and only continue to saturate throughout the day.
With the extremely warm weather on the way, I would expect avalanche danger to be on the rise throughout the day now that the snowpack is no longer freezing overnight.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
On Saturday, there was on natural cornice fall in the Red Snow Cirque saddle between Tuk and Tuk No. This cornice failed on a Northeast aspect around 11,900' and the debris ran about 450' below it. Check out the full observation HERE.
Photo of the cornice fall (T. Matthews)
We also noted some wet loose activity, and widespread roller balls below ridgelines and rock bands yesterday.
See the La Sal avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As the temperatures remain elevated today, wet-loose avalanches will become nearly certain on aspects facing west to south to east. The northerly slopes will remain colder longer, but with such warm temperatures today, I would expect the snow surface to become wet and avalanches to begin occurring on the northerlies.
While most of the avalanche activity will be wet-loose type avalanches, with prolonged periods of above-freezing temperatures, there becomes a possibility that you can trigger a wet slab avalanche deeper into the snowpack that fails on old crusts or softer (colder) layers deeper down. The longer the temperatures remain above freezing, the higher the likelihood of a large slab avalanche occurring becomes. Remember to watch your exits and plan to avoid terrain traps in the day's heat.
Cornices: We have gotten a few reports of natural cornice fall. Cornices are currently large and only continue to grow in the backcountry. With today's warm temperatures, we will continue to see more cornices breaking naturally. Give cornices, and the edges of cornices a wide berth as they often break farther back than expected. Limit your exposure to slopes below cornices.
Additional Information
This graph is from the Snotel site near the Geyser Pass Winter TH. The black line is our current season. Total SWE is 230% of normal.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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