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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 9, 2020
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. That said there are still areas where one could trigger an avalanche. Steep, northerly facing terrain right around treeline and below, where the snowpack is thin and weak, is the most suspect. Shallow areas near rock outcroppings or along slope margins are likely trigger points. Daytime heating will be minimal but mid and lower elevations did not get a solid refreeze. Stay off of steep slopes that are wet or punchy. Practice safe travel techniques with an eye toward subtle terrain features that may harbor lingering instabilities.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt, mud and packed snow that gets sloppy later in the day.
Grooming Report: Trails into Gold Basin were groomed on Friday, and Geyser Pass through the Loppet Loop were rolled out.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 1" Weekly Snow 1" Base Depth in Gold Basin 54" Wind SW 10-15 G 25 mph Temp 22F
Weather: The mountains picked up an inch of snow during a blustery day yesterday. Southwesterly winds backed off a bit overnight into the 10-15 mph range where they'll remain today. Skies will be partly sunny and high temps will reach the mid 30's. Unsettled weather through the week will keep the mountains under mostly cloudy skies with a chance for snow on Wednesday, and then hopefully a better chance on Friday when a low-pressure system off the Southern California coast will move into the desert Southwest. The actual track is uncertain and models are showing disagreement at this time. It could stay south of us or we could get some snow. Stay tuned.
Snowpack: It's going to be a bit rugged out today with a solid freeze overnight and slow warming under partly cloudy skies. Stout melt-freeze crusts exist on south-facing sun exposed slopes, while northerly facing wind exposed terrain is scoured and firm. Corn-like conditions will be on hold today, and many surfaces will be punchy and unsupportable. Occasional areas of soft, powdery snow can still be found on sheltered aspects. Dave Garcia and Charlie Ramser went big on Saturday. Read their observation here.
There is still plenty of loose, weak, sugary snow hanging around on shady aspects right around treeline and below. In some areas, this underlying snow is completely unsupportable. On sun exposed slopes the upper layers are becoming saturated, and in some shallow snowpack areas, the weak, faceted snow underneath is wet to the ground.
Loose, weak, faceted snow makes up much of the underlying snowpack on shady aspects.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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Description
The danger is generally LOW but as our weak, wintery snowpack transitions into a spring-like snowpack there are still some isolated concerns out there:
Persistent Weak Layer: In areas where the snowpack is less than about 4' deep, the snowpack on northerly facing slopes is comprised almost entirely of loose, weak, sugary facets. This condition is generally found right around treeline and below. In some of these areas, a soft cohesive slab from last week's storm is sitting on top. You may be able to trigger this slab in areas of very steep, rocky, or sparsely treed, radical terrain. Shallow areas near rock outcroppings or along slope margins are likely trigger points. Even a small avalanche triggered in these areas could have devastating consequences.
Wet Snow: As the snowpack transitions from winter to spring, it's at it's most vulnerable state for wet slide activity when temperatures soar. Shallow snowpack areas have become punchy and unsupportable. Stay off of steep slopes if you find yourself punching through into wet and sloppy snow.
Additional Information
One year ago today kicked off the start of a historic avalanche cycle in the La Sals. A notoriously bad persistent weak layer had been plaguing the snowpack for most of the season when weekly water totals of 3" and strong SW winds broke the scales triggering this massive avalanche in Horse Creek on the NE facing ridge up to Pre Laurel Peak. The average depth was more than 6' and it measured 2500' wide. Within days, another 3" of water and 32" of snow would bring the house down! Stay tuned for more pics.
Observer Dave Garcia at the crown of a massive avalanche in Horse Creek observed on March 9, 2019. Mark Staples photo.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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