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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 5, 2021
Recent snow and wind have created a MODERATE danger for avalanches involving wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline. On steep slopes facing NW through N through SE, there remains a MODERATE danger for human-triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Thin snowpack areas around rock outcroppings, sparse trees, or along slope margins are the most likely trigger points. Strong sun and warm temps today will quickly affect the most recent snow and we should see a MODERATE danger for shallow, loose, wet slides today on sun-exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls and pinwheels, and get off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road was plowed and widened on Wednesday. A couple inches of snow fell on Thursday and all-wheel drive with good tires is recommended. Beware of soft shoulders.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind NE 15-25 mph Temp 12F
Moderate to strong northerly winds overnight are starting to back off this morning and it's looking like a beautiful day on tap in the mountains. Under sunny skies, NE winds will continue to decrease shifting to southerly later in the day. High temps at 10,000' will be near 40F. Conditions remain dry through early next week until a much-watched Pacific trough moves down the coast and eventually inland sometime around Tue-Wed. Timing and precipitation amounts still look vague.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
A few inches of new snow combined with wind has resulted in some shallow, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow at upper elevations. As always, be on the lookout for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed terrain. In sheltered areas, the new snow will make for a nice refresh but the sun will get to it quick today! Warm temperatures over the past two weeks have crusted over southerly aspects as well as helped strengthen and consolidate the snowpack. Near and below treeline, the snowpack is generally supportive, and you will probably not see any obvious signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing. However, if you dig down or probe the snow, you will still find weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack. The most dangerous slopes face NW-N-SE and contain a slab 1'-3' thick that is perched above weak, faceted snow. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they could produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure exists with consolidated slabs resting on buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow on many aspects. The most dangerous areas are on slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-SE where wind drifted snow has created slabs 1'-3' deep on top of these buried weak layers. These avalanches are becoming harder to trigger but once released, they will be large and destructive. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A few inches of new snow combined with wind has created shallow deposits of wind drifted snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features like sub-ridges and gully walls. On steep, northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers so it isn't merely a question of identifying and testing for wind slab instability. The bottom line is that steep, wind loaded, northerly-facing terrain remains very much a gamble, and deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We will likely see some shallow, loose wet activity today as the sun heats up the recent cold snow. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls and pinwheels, and get off of and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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