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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 4, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are likely. There is also an isolated, or MODERATE danger for avalanches involving a buried, persistent weak layer.
New snow avalanches are possible on steep slopes on all aspects. The danger increases with elevation.
Wind drifted snow avalanches will mostly be found on the leeward sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features on slopes facing NW-N-SE.
Persistent weak layer problems are most likely encountered on steep, rocky, northerly facing slopes, or in areas with a shallower snowpack.
And finally, as the day heats up, avoid steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We're offering a Motorized Backcountry 101 course through Backcountry Institute on March 22, 23 to be held in Monticello, and Dark Canyon in the La Sal Mountains. Click here for more information and to register.
Weather and Snow
Gold Basin picked up another 3" since yesterday evening bringing totals up to 16" since Saturday afternoon. WNW winds are relatively light this morning averaging 15 mph along ridge tops, and 10,000' temps are around 20 degrees. Look for mostly cloudy skies today with a lingering possibility for a trace of snow. WNW winds will be in the increase averaging 20 mph with gusts to 30. High temps will be in the low 20's. We'll see a break, and possibly even some sunny skies on Tuesday before the next system moves in on Wednesday.
In our travels yesterday, we found very dense, spongy snow that made for fast, and fun riding and turning. Last night's snow was a bit lighter, and it will make a nice sugar coat on top of yesterday's creamy frosting.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow yesterday did not seem particularly sensitive, but it had formed a dense, cohesive slab 10" - 18" deep on all aspects. I'm inclined to give it at least another day or so to settle out before I would be willing to trust it on slopes approaching 35 degrees or more.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have formed on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-SE. You can recognize wind drifted slopes by their smooth, rounded, or "fat" appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. With 16" of dense snow to work with, expect drifts to be 2' deep or more. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've added a significant load of new snow, with close to 2" of water weight, on to buried persistent weak layers in our snowpack. Visibility was poor yesterday and we weren't able to observe much but the new load will be a a good test. Though it's been getting harder to trigger this kind of avalanche, steep, rocky slopes facing N-NE-E, and areas with a shallower snowpack remain suspect. This includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Any avalanches triggered on a persistent weak layer would be large and dangerous.
Additional Information
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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