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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 6, 2023
The avalanche danger is LOW and generally stable snow conditions exist. By definition, small avalanches are possible in isolated areas or in extreme terrain.
The primary concerns are isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow on leeward slopes above treeline, and sluffing in the snow at the surface in steep northerly facing terrain.
Evaluate each slope and look for any signs of instability such as cracking in fresh wind drifts or loose surface snow easily moving.
Risk is inherent in mountain travel; even a small avalanche can be problematic in very steep, consequential terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and widened with a snow packed surface.
Grooming: Matt will be up grooming today.
A huge shout out to the Grand County Winter Rescue Team for keeping up on their rescue training here in the La Sals. We know we can count on you!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 2" 72 Hour Snow 2" Season Total Snow 185" Base Depth at Gold Basin 73"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak NW 10-15 mph Temp 12 F
Weather
The low pressure trough responsible for last night's 2" of snow has largely moved on, but clouds and a chance for snow linger this morning. Look for clearing skies and mostly sunny conditions later today. We'll see light to moderate NW winds and high temps at 10,000' in the low 20's. The weather looks high and dry through the week, with long range models hinting at a return to a more active pattern mid-month.
General Conditions
Over the weekend folks took advantage of the generally stable snow conditions by pushing up into the higher alpine terrain. Most were rewarded with soft, settled, dry snow conditions on northerly aspects although some surfaces are a bit wind affected. Strong sunshine and very warm temperatures have done a number on south facing slopes and they are well crusted over. 2" of new snow overnight has given us a slight refresh and I don't anticipate much of a change in the avalanche danger. Keep an eye out for shallow, fresh drifts if you are getting up into steeper, higher terrain.
Although people are getting out, we haven't seen any recent observations in awhile. Please let us know what you are seeing, even if it's "just" great snow and stable conditions! See the full list of La Sal observations here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the backcountry. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack is generally stable and natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger. In isolated areas, you may encounter:
  • Slabs of wind-drifted snow that that remain sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. These potentially unstable drifts are most prevalent on steep, northerly-facing slopes above the treeline. They will be the most problematic in areas of consequential terrain where you could be swept into rocks or carried over a cliff.
  • Small sluffs within the snow surface, or directly below a shallow wind skin on steep slopes on shady aspects. Think about the type of terrain you are traveling above, and where a skier or rider could end up if knocked off their feet. In confined and sustained terrain features, sluffs can pile up deeply, especially in terrain traps.
  • While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on the buried persistent weak layer that formed in November has become so low that we have removed that problem from our forecast. A remote possibility exits however in thinner snowpack areas, or in very steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Always practice safe travel techniques regardless of conditions. Continue to evaluate the snowpack and gather as much information as possible. Use test slopes that are representative of the terrain you wish to ski.
This is an example of the type of steep, wind drifted terrain you should still pay attention to. Note the areas of wind drifted snow hanging above consequential terrain.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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