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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 28, 2020
It's becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche and most terrain has generally LOW danger. A very isolated or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow still exists primarily on upper elevation slopes facing N-E-SE. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and they may sound or feel hollow like a drum. In areas of more radical, extreme terrain, where the underlying snow is shallow and weak, a triggered wind drift may cause a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
A new version of the UAC IOS application is now available on the Apple App Store. This version fixes many of the issues that occur when running IOS 13.
Road Conditions: The most recent snow has been well packed in by traffic. The road is slick and icy in places.
Grooming report: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed all trails on Monday. Thanks Matt!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind NW 10-15 mph G20 Temp 15F
Weather: Another nice day is in store with sunny skies, mostly light NW winds, and high temps in the low to mid 30's. The next chance for snow looks like Sunday into Monday with a small storm moving through that might bring a few inches of snow.
Snowpack: If you've been following the forecast you no doubt read my colleague Brett Kobernik's assessment on Wednesday where he described it as being in horrible shape, with the 3" of new snow this week amounting to "smearing a small amount of lipstick on that ugly pig." NPS ranger and observer Brian Hays was up training with other NPS rangers yesterday and he called it a "Hall of Horrors" with the general flavor as "crust city." Read his observation here. Of course, all this corroborates what I've been saying for the past 3 weeks or so but at least we've found some different ways to describe it! The bottom line is that the surface consists of a variety of crusts and textures, some supportable, some not, while underneath the pack has deteriorated into a pile of loose, weak, sugary facets. The snowpack is at its weakest point of the season, and as we slide into March there isn't a lot of hope for regaining the robust snowpack we once had. Though not currently posing much of an issue beyond the disastrous turning and riding conditions, this weak snow will become problematic with a significant snow load.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
There is still snow up there...
Unfortunately, much of it looks like this:
Brian Hays photos.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind slabs formed earlier in the week have gained strength and are becoming more difficult to trigger. They are also isolated, often existing adjacent to wind-scoured surfaces. Look for them on the lee sides of terrain features such as sub-ridges, rock buttresses, and gully walls. Approach steep terrain with caution, and suspect areas where the snow sounds or feels hollow like a drum.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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