Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 10-20 Temp 27° Percent of Normal: 98%

Winds from the SW have been on the increase overnight and are blowing in the 10-20 mph range along ridge tops. Look for sunny, warm, and breezy conditions today with high temps at 10,000' rising to near 40F. Winds will increase tonight and clouds will build as the first wave of moisture in a two-part storm system moves into the region. I'm still bullish about how this will play out for us. We're not likely to see any moisture from the first wave. Our best chance for snow will come from the second round Monday night into Tuesday, but the GFS model run this morning had scaled back from yesterday. I'm hopeful that we'll pick up at least 6" from this. The rest of the week looks sunny and dry.

Tim Mathews and Nate Ament reported some surprisingly good, sleeper conditions out there on Friday. It seems like a passing front on Thursday put down a nice layer of graupel that barely registered on the storm board. Look for sheltered, lower angle slopes to take advantage of these conditions. Brian Sparks sent in this observation from the Corkscrew Glades yesterday, where he continued to find faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. The likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche down to this weak layer has decreased significantly, but you can keep the odds in your favor by avoiding areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain, or slopes with complex terrain features. Thinner snowpack areas remain suspect where your weight can much more easily affect the weak layer. We are getting reports of people pushing into steep, consequential terrain without incident, but before you do this, pull out your shovel, or simply probe around. I'd personally like to see close to 200 cms of snow before I'd feel good about skiing something steep.

Quality low angle turns in a graupel layer on top of a few inches of dry snow. Tim Mathews photo.