Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10-15 Temp 10° Percent of Normal: 100%

Today, we'll be under the influence of dry, northwesterly flow. Look for sunny skies, light winds from the NW, and high temps in the low 30's. More of the same on Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures. Look for increasing winds on Sunday as the flow shifts to the SW ahead of a somewhat promising looking period of stormy weather Mon-Tues.

Nothing new to report. Exposed southerly aspects are stripped and scoured while cross-loading and blowing have affected slopes facing W-N-SE. Mid and low elevation, sheltered, northerly aspects harbor the best chances for finding decent snow. Near and above treeline, stiff slabs of wind drifted snow mid-week formed primarily on northerly aspects. They'll be more stubborn today, but unfortunately exist on the same slopes where we have our lingering persistent weak layer problem. The likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche down into weak, faceted snow has decreased significantly, but keep the odds in your favor by avoiding areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain, or slopes with complex terrain features. Thinner snowpack areas remain suspect where your weight can much more easily affect the weak layer. Pull out your shovel, or simply probe around. I'd personally like to see close to 200 cms of snow before I'd feel good about skiing something steep.

Although this messaging may grow tiresome, the threat remains real. Over in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, where they have a similar snowpack, folks continue to trigger dangerous avalanches failing on deeply buried faceted weak layers including this avalanche that caught and buried two people.

Check out this video Dave made for a discussion of our current, "Low probability - high consequence" scenario.