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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 23, 2020
Minor snowfall amounts have not changed conditions much and the avalanche danger remains generally LOW. Low danger doesn't mean no danger and it may still be possible to trigger an isolated wind drift in steep, upper elevation, wind affected terrain. On steep, shady slopes below treeline, human triggered, loose snow sluffs entraining weak, faceted snow are also possible. Though mostly small and manageable, one could catch you off guard and sweep you into a tree or over a cliff. Practice safe travel techniques and keep an eye toward subtle terrain features that may harbor lingering instabilities.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The UAC's Avy Awareness Auction is currently underway with tons of great gear, jewelry, artwork and experiences available. Visit the auction page here to help support the UAC's spring avalanche awareness and outreach efforts.
A new version of the UAC IOS application is now available on the Apple App Store. This version fixes many of the issues that occur when running IOS 13.
Road Conditions: Expect an inch or so of new snow on top of an otherwise snow-packed and at times icy surface.
Grooming report: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed on Tuesday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 2" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind S 10-20 mph Temp 19F
Weather: So much for optimism. Our last chance for a decent storm this month turned out to be a bust with barely 2" of new snow falling overnight. Let's hope for a change of fortune in March. Look for lingering showers this morning and gradually clearing skies by this afternoon. Light to moderate SW winds will shift to NW later in the day, and high temps will be near 30 degrees. Northwest winds will be on the increase tomorrow, "the final insult" as ex La Sal forecaster Dave Medara used to call them. The rest of the week looks dry.
Snowpack: If you've been following the forecast and or getting out in the mountains lately, you're no doubt aware of the deteriorating state of our snowpack and the new snow hasn't changed things much. Winds have strafed and scoured the snow right down to the rocks on exposed slopes in upper elevations, and most snow surfaces are a mixture of crusts, Sastrugi, and hard wind-board. The extended period of dry weather, and cold, clear nights has resulted in fairly extensive faceting of the snowpack, particularly on shady aspects right around treeline and below. Though this soft, re-crystallized snow offers some of the best riding conditions right now, it is extremely weak. Last week Dave Garcia and Reed Kennard were able to trigger small, loose avalanches comprised entirely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Read their observation here. These small sluffs are not particularly dangerous but they could sweep you off your feet and push you into a tree or over a cliff, and they are indicative of how weak the snowpack has become.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Remarkably, we've only just dipped below the median snowpack average and are still hanging in there at 91%.
The SE Utah region is still over 100%.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the danger is generally LOW, there are still areas out there where you might be able to trigger an avalanche. You are most likely to find trouble in upper elevation, extreme terrain on slopes facing NW-N-SE. The distinction in arriving at LOW danger is in the size (small), likelihood (not very), and distribution (isolated), of any particular avalanche problem. Minimize your exposure by practicing safe travel techniques with an eye toward the following avalanche problems:
Wind Drifted Snow: With a wide variety of terrain features and heavy exposure to wind, there are almost always isolated wind slabs lurking about somewhere, especially at upper elevations. In isolated areas, you may encounter wind drifted snow overlying a layer of weak faceted snow. Be on the lookout for wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges, and suspect areas that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound and feel hollow like a drum.
Loose snow sluffs: On steep, shady slopes, human triggered, loose snow sluffs entraining weak, faceted snow are possible. Though mostly small and manageable, one could catch you off guard and sweep you into a tree or over a cliff.
Persistent Weak Layer: Shallow snowpack areas are developing weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You are most likely to find these weak layers on rocky, or sparsely wooded northerly facing slopes where the snowpack is less than about 4' deep. Faceted snow is also developing near the surface, or underneath a variety of crusts that exist out there. This weak snow will likely become a concern when we put more snow on it.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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