Check out our Holiday Auction - Sign Up for the Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW)
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 5, 2022
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on slopes that face NW-N-E near treeline and above where slabs of wind drifted snow exist on top of a weak, fragile snowpack. Human triggered avalanches are possible on these slopes. South and westerly facing slopes and most areas below treeline terrain have LOW danger.
It's still low tide out there and rocks, stumps, and deadfall are lurking just beneath the surface. A ride in even a small avalanche in these low snow conditions would be rugged.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We will be giving a free Know Before You Go Avalanche Awareness talk on Tuesday, Dec 6 at 6:00 p.m. at the MARC (111 E 100 N).
Join us for the 1st Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party on Saturday, Dec 10 at the MARC. The event will be from 7-9 PM. Get your tickets here.
Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness Week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view a full list of events throughout the state.
Road Conditions: Grand County has not yet begun plowing the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead. The road is hard-packed snow and slick in places. Good tires and all wheel drive are recommended.
Grooming: The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead closes on Dec 15. Grooming will commence after that, but but for now, the road above the trailhead is snowpacked and well traveled and cross country ski conditions are pretty good.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 41" Base Depth at Gold Basin 22"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SW 15- 25 Temp 28F
A deep low-pressure system over the Pacific Northwest will begin to feed moisture into the region through a series of shortwave disturbances on southwest flow. Impacts today will be primarily to the north and we can expect continued cloudy and breezy conditions in the mountains today. The jet will sag south tonight into Tuesday, with the best shot of snow for our area looking to be Tues night into Wed. A transient ridge builds on Thursday, but the trough train looks to return over the weekend with an active pattern through the model run.
A ravaged snowscape currently exists up there. Strong, gusty, and erratic south through northwesterly winds the past week have alternately deposited, scoured, and re-deposited snow again on a variety of slopes near and above treeline. For more on that, see this observation from Dave Garcia and Nate Ament. A complex pattern of winddrifts are sitting on top of a foundation of weak, sugary, faceted snow. The bottom line is that the snowpack isn't shaping up all that well and we will soon be facing a persistent weak layer problem. It's also still low tide out there with lots of rocks, stumps, and logs lurking about.
Things are definitely in need of a fresh coat of paint!
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
If you are getting up into the mountains please submit an observation and let us know what you are seeing!
Recent Avalanches
Dave Garcia and Nate Ament observed this recent wind slab release on Saturday, Dec 3.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong, erratic winds have creatd a complex landscape. Recent slabs of wind drifted snow exist on top of older ones, although due to the amount scouring, they are isolated. Basically, any slope facing NW through N through E. that has enough snow to ride is susp[ect. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, "pillowy" appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. Look for unstable areas of wind drifted snow on the the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as rock outcroppings, sub ridges, and gully walls. Due to higher wind speeds, they may also exist further down slope than you expect. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are carefully monitoring the snowpack as the underlying structrure is very weak and comprised almost entirely of loose, weak, sugary, faceted snow on W-N-E aspects. A widespread cohesive slab has not yet developed, but in areas that have complex layers of wind drifted snow, a weak, faceted layer will produce the failure. Expect this problem to become more widespread when we add more snow.
Additional Information
Check out this pit profile from Dave Garcia taken at the crown of the avalanche he observed over the weekend. What we look for are harder layers over softer, weak layers. The further a layer extends to the left on the graph, the harder it is. Notice the complex layering of hard layers over soft layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >