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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 3, 2022
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on slopes that face W-N-SE near treeline and above where slabs of wind drifted snow exist on top of a weak, fragile snowpack. Human triggered avalanches are possible on these slopes. Slopes that face SW-S and below treeline terrain offers a LOW danger.
It's still low tide out there and rocks, stumps, and deadfall are lurking just beneath the surface. A ride in even a small avalanche in these low snow conditions would be rugged.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We will be giving a free Know Before You Go Avalanche Awareness talk on Tuesday, Dec 6 at 6:00 p.m. at the MARC (111 E 100 N).
Join us for the 1st Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party on Saturday, Dec 10 at the MARC. The event will be from 7-9 PM. Get your tickets here.
Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness Week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view a full list of events throughout the state.
Road Conditions: Grand County has not yet begun plowing the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead. The road is hard-packed snow and slick in places. Good tires and all wheel drive are recommended.
Grooming: The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead closes on Dec 15. Grooming will commence after that, but but for now, the road abiove the trailhead is snowpacked and well traveled and cross country ski conditions are pretty good.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 41" Base Depth at Gold Basin 24"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 15-25 Temp 26F
Trace amounts of snow fell in the mountains yesterday while westerly winds eased off for awhile. They've shifted back to southerly and have ramped up a bit blowing in the 15-25 mph range along ridgetops. Today look for cloudy skies with a slight chance for snow showers, breezy SW winds, and high temps in the upper 20's at 10,000'. Unsettled weather continues but with no storm favoring our area. Our best shot right now looks to be around Wed-Thu.
Strong, gusty, south through westerly winds this week have formed potentially unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on leeward slopes near and above treeline. Alternately, windward surfaces are scoured, crusted, and sculpted. Complicating the picture are new wind slabs on top of older ones, all of which are sitting on top of a foundation of weak, sugary, faceted snow. The bottom line is that the snowpack isn't shaping up all that well and we will soon be facing a persistent weak layer problem. It's also still low tide out there with lots of rocks, stumps, and logs lurking about. It's just not quite game on yet, we need another foot or so of snow.
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
If you are getting up into the mountains please submit an observation and let us know what you are seeing!
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the backcountry.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
South through westerly winds this week have created slabs of wind drifted snow on slopes facing W through N through SE. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, "pillowy" appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. Look for unstable areas of wind drifted snow on the the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as rock outcroppings, sub ridges, and gully walls. Due to higher wind speeds, they may also exist further down slope than you expect. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
The photos below were taken by Dave Garcia earlier this week. Note the pillowy nature of recent wind drifting as well as down slope loading.
Additional Information
This snow profile shows our very weak snowpack that was buried by seven inches of snow on Monday.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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