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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 11, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind drifted slopes near treeline and above that face NW through N through E. Dangerous, human triggered avalanches, failing on a buried persistent weak layer 1'-4' deep are likely in these areas. Terrain on the southern half of the compass offers MODERATE to LOW danger. In general, the danger increases with elevation on these aspects, as well as on slopes with a more westerly or easterly component. Expect the avalanche danger to rise and become more widespread over the next 36 hours.
Low
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High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Wow, that was a blast! Thanks to everyone for turning out and making the 1st Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party a huge success! Music was played, prizes were given, skis were waxed, and a great time was had by all! A huge shout out to the band, our local crew of observers/volunteers, and our friends at Moab Gear Trader for making this event possible!
Road Conditions: Grand County has plowed the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead. The road surface is snow packed over dirt. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead closes on Dec 15. Grooming will commence after that.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 55" Base Depth at Gold Basin 30"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SSE 30-40 G45 Temp 30F
Weather
Southerly winds begin ramping up yesterday and clouds moved in ahead of an approaching Pacific Storm system. Today will be cloudy, very windy, and warm. Snowfall should begin sometime tonight with a snowy day on tap for tomorrow. 6"-10" seem likely at this time.
General Conditions
The snowpack has quickly become eerily quiet and in our travels yesterday we didn't experience any collapsing or whumphing. A poor snowpack structure still exists however, and the entire snowpack beneath the November 28 storm is loose, weak, and faceted. We're still lacking a widespread cohesive slab but they do exist, especially in wind drifted terrain on northerly aspects where slabs 1'-4' thick exist over this weak, faceted layer. Strong southerly winds today will continue to load these slopes. Conditions remain thin, but good riding can be found on sheltered low angle terrain.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that developed during the cold dry period in mid November is now present on all aspects. The condition is most dangerous and wide spread on slopes facing the north half of the compass, where wind drifted snow has built thick slabs on top. On the south side of the compass it is more hit and miss due to scouring and low snow conditions on these aspects. This persistent weak layer is settling in and will be with us for awhile so plan on avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those that face NW-N-E, for the foreseeable future.
Photo illustrates the obvious poor snowpack structure on a NE aspect. As more snow is piled on top, stress on the weak snow will increase, as will the likelihood of triggering deeper and more dangerous avalanches.
Photo illustrates obvious weak layer of facets on a W aspect. What's lacking here is dense, cohesive slab on top. But that's sure to come, and the weak layer isn't going away.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow continues to create slabs on northerly aspects. Though fresh deposits of wind drifted snow are a concern, the primary issue is continued loading on the buried persistent weak layer. Avoidance of steep, northerly facing slopes is the only realistic strategy at this time.
Additional Information
If you are getting up into the mountains please submit an observation and let us know what you are seeing!
This detailed snowpit illustrates my findings on a NE aspect at 11,200'.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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