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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Saturday morning, November 5, 2022
We are not yet issuing regular forecasts or danger ratings. For the early season, we are monitoring conditions and posting updates as necessary. It is certainly looking like winter in the La Sal mountains. The latest round of snow delivered 8 inches bringing our base depth to about 22 inches. This is enough snow to be enticing and lure you off roads and summer trails. Don't be fooled, it is still low tide out there and rocks and stumps remain a very real hazard. A thin layer of faceted snow exists in the middle of snowpack. This layer is capable of producing avalanches anywhere a cohesive slab sits above it. You are most likely to find avalanche problems above treeline in areas of wind drifted snow. Remember if there is enough snow to ride, there is enough snow to slide. Any avalanche would be rough in these low snow conditions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
As we gear up for the winter season, here are a few things to consider doing:
  • Attend USAW and learn more about avalanches and decision making. (scroll down to the bottom of this page for more info and links)
  • Sign up for an avalanche class.
  • Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
  • Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 8" Base Depth at Gold Basin 21" Wind W 5-10 Temp 20F
Temperatures have warmed since yesterday and it is a pleasant 20 degrees at 10,000 ft. Today will see highs in the mid 20's and partly sunny skies. Monday and Tuesday will bring increasing winds in the mountains with above normal temperatures. Our next chance for snow is Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The November third storm gives us a settled snow depth of about 22" inches in Gold Basin. This is a great start for early November, but overall the snowpack is very shallow. Be on the lookout for rocks and logs just beneath the snow surface. Your best bet for ski touring remains roads and grassy slopes.
The most recent storm brought light density powder. The October snow is providing a nice supportive base beneath the new snow. In our travels yesterday we were happy to find the old snow at the base of the pack is not completely faceted to the ground. If you dig down you will find 4F to 1F density at the bottom of the pack. A thin layer of faceted snow formed in the top few centimeters of the October snow while it sat around for about 12 days. Avalanche conditions seem mostly benign for now, but a wind slab on top of this faceted weak layer could produce an avalanche. If you are attempting to ski anything, be on the lookout for areas where wind-drifted snow has formed a cohesive slab. You are most likely to find wind-drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.
Tim Matthews was up on Friday and sent in this great observation.
If you are getting up into the mountains please submit an observation and let us know what you are seeing!
Get the most recent observations here.
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links:
Snow and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at the Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Snow and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) near the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Speed and Direction on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS point forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Additional Information
Sign up for the 15th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) on two nights, November 2nd and 9th. Sign up and get more info for the first session HERE and the second session HERE.
The Avalanche Professional and Ski Patrol Snow and Avalanche Workshop (PROSAW) will be during the day of November 7th. Sign up and get more info HERE. (note - PROSAW will be offered both in-person and virtual).
General Announcements
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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